It has been a rough season for the Chicago White Sox and first-year manager Pedro Grifol. That was true even before Saturday's melee that was touched off by the sparring match between Tim Anderson and Cleveland Guardians star Jose Ramirez.
While you hate to see that kind of fisticuffs, if you're looking for a silver lining, it's that at least both clubs are competing with a spark of apparent passion. In a roundabout way, this speaks to something Grifol told the Chicago Sun-Times the day before: "This is not a 'just finish the season out' type of two months for us. We're never going to compromise a major league win, because they're really, really hard to come by."
Over the last eight weeks of the regular season, most of the national coverage will be pointed at the teams still battling for the playoffs and, after that, hoping to find a path to the World Series. That's as it should be; those teams have earned it.
Nevertheless, every team has things to play for down the stretch. In a sense, teams out of the running like Grifol's ChiSox have the luxury of getting a running start on the 2024 season and beyond. While it can be a challenge to transmit that message to a clubhouse full of players who hoped for better, that doesn't make it less true.
These games matter, for every team. As we run through this month's Stock Watch, determining each club's prime directive will be our mission.
1. Atlanta Braves
Sim wins: 103.6 (change from July: -1.8)
Probabilities: 100% (division), 100% (playoffs), 24% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: After some early challenges from the Rays and Rangers in the American League, the Braves have emerged as the clear-cut No. 1 team in the Stock Watch pecking order. Barring a very unlikely collapse, the Braves almost certainly will clinch the No. 1 seed in the National League bracket. They still have some work to do to ward off the top AL club by record, as the Orioles are one hot streak away from claiming the best overall mark. The Braves have an excellent shot at establishing a team home run mark. But the flip side of that is that 56.1% of their runs have come via the long ball. Excepting the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, that long ball reliance would be the highest of any team during the division era (since 1969), nearly 3% more than the 2019 Blue Jays. Is that bad? Well, there have been 12 non-2020 teams before Atlanta with a runs-via-homer percentage of 50% or more during that time frame. Only the 2019 Astros (50.3%) have won a pennant, and none have won it all. The mission: Prove that they can win without the long ball, because while homers often decide postseason games, they can be a lot harder to come by that time of the season.
2. Baltimore Orioles
Sim wins: 97.4 (change: +8.6)
Probabilities: 49% (division), 99% (playoffs), 6% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: For the Orioles, it's simple: Land the No. 1 overall seed in the AL. The Rays' much-stronger run differential has kept the AL East probabilities close despite Baltimore's current lead in the standings. The big reason the O's have the edge is an overwhelming 35-17 mark in games decided by one or two runs. That can be fool's gold, but the strength of the Orioles' bullpen makes you think they have a better chance than most to keep winning the close ones. Playing at home during October guarantees nothing, of course. The Orioles have a similar record at home and on the road, and they actually have a stronger run differential in away games. Still, the Orioles haven't played a postseason game at Camden Yards since Oct. 11, 2014. They'd like to enjoy as many October games there as possible this fall.
3. Tampa Bay Rays
Sim wins: 96.5 (change: -6.2)
Probabilities: 46% (division), 98% (playoffs), 12% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: The key deadline acquisition of Aaron Civale gave the Rays a fully stocked four-man rotation for a postseason run. Alas, Shane McClanahan subsequently landed back on the IL for the second time this season. McClanahan missed time in July with a back problem, but this time it's left forearm tightness. Luckily, it appears the Rays can hope to have McClanahan back for the postseason, and they need him if they are to put their best foot forward at the most crucial time of the season. Civale is an upgrade for the end of the Rays' rotation, but he's not an upgrade on McClanahan.
4. Texas Rangers
Sim wins: 96.0 (change: -1.4)
Probabilities: 74% (division), 98% (playoffs), 16% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: The healthy version of the Rangers' roster is scary. That's true even without Jacob deGrom, who we know is down for the year. Alas, Texas' breakout season is being threatened by a rash of additional key injuries. Cy Young contender Nathan Eovaldi has a forearm strain, but luckily, he is expected to be back sometime in August. All-Star catcher Jonah Heim injured his wrist on a swing and ended up on the IL. Texas added Austin Hedges in an under-the-radar move at the deadline. Hedges is one of the few backstops in baseball who actually has better defensive numbers than Heim. But Hedges has to learn a new staff on the fly, and then there's the offense: Heim, 121 OPS+; Hedges 24 OPS+. Finally, and perhaps worst of all, Rookie of the Year candidate Josh Jung suffered a thumb fracture Sunday. He's slated for surgery, but it does sound like he could return for the playoffs. The Rangers need to get this roster healthy by October.
5. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sim wins: 95 (change:+3.6)
Probabilities: 94% (division), 100% (playoffs), 14% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: Maybe when we referred to this as being a transitional "season" for the Dodgers, we should have been more literal about it. On June 18, the Dodgers lost to the Giants, as their rivals completed a three-game sweep at Dodger Stadium. L.A. dropped to 39-33 and, yeah, it looked like a transition. The Dodgers then won on June 20, the last day of spring, and the transition was over. The Dodgers, the franchise we perhaps associate with summer more than any other, has since resumed the dynastic trajectory they've been on for a decade. L.A. has to keep pushing, as the Giants aren't that far behind. If the Dodgers can get Clayton Kershaw -- who is "very likely" to return Thursday -- and the rest of the rotation functioning at full capacity over the next few weeks, the division race should take care of itself. And L.A., its transition "season" behind it, would hit October with the trend arrow pointed upward.
6. Houston Astros
Sim wins: 92.8 (change: +1.6
Probabilities: 24% (division), 90% (playoffs), 6% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: The Astros need to figure out their rotation. The good news in Houston is there are options. Jose Urquidy's return from the IL, coupled with the re-acquisition of Justin Verlander, give Dusty Baker six starters with whom to work. The Astros can go with a six-man rotation, especially as we enter the latter stages of the season when pitchers are wearing down. Complicating a move in that direction has been Urquidy's lack of production. With a 6.10 ERA and 6.01 FIP, Urquidy has easily been the worst of the six starters on the active roster. That includes 28-year-old rookie J.P. France, who has seized upon his long-awaited big league debut to post outstanding numbers over 15 starts. The Astros likely wouldn't use either pitcher in their postseason rotation, but they must get there first. Can the Astros afford to see whether Urquidy can regain his consistency and wavering command in the majors? Urquidy does have minor league options remaining.
7. Toronto Blue Jays
Sim wins: 90.3 (change: +4.3)
Probabilities: 4% (division), 76% (playoffs), 3% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: The Blue Jays are a 90-win team. That's roughly how they projected before the season, that's the win pace they are on, and that's the record at which their run differential suggests they should land. Yet, doesn't it feel like their high-level talent screams for more? It's hard to put your finger on it, but despite the presence of Bo Bichette (on pace for more than 200 hits), Home Run Derby champ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and other standouts, Toronto is on target to be a sixth seed and high-quality third-place club. How can the Jays transcend that outlook? It starts with Guerrero. He's been good at the plate, but he's supposed to be better than good, and his recent numbers are trending down. In the same category is George Springer, whose overall season has been right at league average, perhaps a half-tick above. The Blue Jays signed him to be a lot more than that. For this to all come together for the Jays, Guerrero and Springer need to lead the charge.
8. Philadelphia Phillies
Sim wins: 87.3 (change: +2.3)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 83% (playoffs), 3% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: It's easy to be snarky here and suggest the Phillies may need to ease up on things a little. As was the case last year for the NL pennant winners, their path to the postseason is a wild card. However, at the moment they would be slotted into a 4-versus-5 matchup against the Giants, with the top-seeded Braves waiting in the next round. Last year, the Phillies got their October run started in a wild-card matchup as the sixth seed going against the third-best division champ. As with last season, that's going to be the NL Central winner, though we don't know who among the Brewers, Cubs and Reds will emerge. Alas, the Phillies may be playing too well to slip down to the six-slot. Thus, even though the Phillies aren't going to catch the Braves for the NL East title, they need to keep doing what they've been doing since early June.
9. Chicago Cubs
Sim wins: 86.4 (change: +6.4)
Probabilities: 60% (division), 80% (playoffs), 4% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: The Cubs were seven games under .500 at the time our last Stock Watch was released. At that point, the idea that they could justifiably add at the deadline was improbable, and if it happened, you figured the lousiness of their own division would be the leading factor. To be sure, the tepid NL Central has kept the Cubs, Brewers and Reds afloat, but Chicago has played legitimately good baseball over the past month. The Cubs are not just alive in the division chase but have also joined the overstuffed NL wild-card derby. Their deadline move -- bringing back onetime prospect Jeimer Candelario -- looked like a genius stroke over the first few post-deadline games, as Candelario was mashing everything in sight. He fits in perfectly with an offense that has swung wildly this season from potent to pointless and back again. The run prevention has been steadier, but of late, their strong rotation has been trending in the wrong direction. David Ross must get that going, or the Cubs' sudden surge will go for naught.
10. Minnesota Twins
Sim wins: 86.1 (change: +1.6)
Probabilities: 93% (division), 93% (playoffs), 4% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: Minnesota has ticked up since the All-Star break without actually catching fire. That's been enough for the Twins to finally start putting some distance between them and the Guardians, and they're in solid position for the AL Central crown. They need to finish that project while also gathering enough momentum so that when the playoffs begin, they might actually win a game. Minnesota would like to do more than that, but when a franchise has lost 18 straight postseason games, getting one win is a good place to start. The Twins' offense has been better lately, with Max Kepler trending up and rookie Edouard Julien fashioning a potent stick. Minnesota has been winning without injured Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis, and with Carlos Correa's career-worst season continuing unimpeded. If the Twins can get this trio back/productive before the end of the season, maybe Minnesota will have a real chance to finally do something in the playoffs.
11. Seattle Mariners
Sim wins: 86 (change: +6.1)
Probabilities: 2% (division), 22% (playoffs), 1% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: The week after the trade deadline has been topsy-turvy in many ways. Perhaps nowhere has this been more evident than in the AL West, where the Mariners caught fire and the Angels went into a deep freeze. Seattle's approach to the deadline was soft; it traded high-leverage reliever Paul Sewald, but the deal with Arizona brought back two big league bats in Josh Rojas and Dominic Canzone. Perhaps most importantly, GM Jerry Dipoto didn't break up the rotation, which is the Mariners' best hope to keep their recent hot streak going. Well, that and a rousing finish to the season by Julio Rodriguez, who has shown signs of doing just that. If that happens and the Mariners get Jarred Kelenic back for the last month or so, it could end up being the AL West, not the East, that lands three postseason slots.
12. San Francisco Giants
Sim wins: 85.2 (change: -2.3)
Probabilities: 4% (division), 66% (playoffs), 2% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: Depending on how you view the roughly break-even Angels, the Giants don't have another series against a non-contender for a full month, when the Rockies visit the Bay Area. That might not be a bad thing. The Giants have been strangely erratic against sub-.500 teams this season. San Francisco has a better record against winning teams (34-27) than losing teams (28-24). Over the last month, the Giants were swept by the last-place Nationals and lost two straight at home in a two-game set against an Oakland club on pace to win fewer than 50 games. Most of the Giants' remaining series are against winning clubs and, in fact, our system rates Frisco's rest-of-season slate as the toughest in the majors. So when the Giants face a struggling team, they need to take advantage.
13. Milwaukee Brewers
Sim wins: 84.4 (change: +1.5)
Probabilities: 29% (division), 57% (playoffs), 1% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: The Brewers must score more runs. Simplistic as it sounds, that's what it boils down to. Milwaukee remains in first place but if ever a team had a precarious division lead, it's the Brewers. That's because of their beloved neighbor to the south, the Cubs, who have emerged as the NL's hottest team. Chicago has at least a four-game edge over the Brewers in whatever recent time frame you want to look at: 10 games, 20, 30, 50. Thus, the Cubs currently have a much stronger chance to win the division than the Brewers, according to the simulations. To flip that dynamic, the division-leading Brew Crew need to hit, and soon. But who? Christian Yelich has been doing his part, as has promising rookie Sal Frelick. Probably the hitter more than any other whom Craig Counsell needs to get on a tear is shortstop Willy Adames.
14. New York Yankees
Sim wins: 83.7 (change: -4.7)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 9% (playoffs), 0% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: Make the playoffs. Remember the Phillies, who advanced to the sixth game of last year's World Series after squeezing into the postseason as a sixth seed. And finish with a winning record, continuing a streak that began when "Seinfeld" was only just becoming a breakout smash hit. (In the latest run of simulations, the Yankees finished with 80 or fewer wins 13.9% of the time, so they have some work to do.) Finally, avoid the cellar, where the Yankees haven't landed since 1990. While we're naming more than one goal here, it all comes down to a common solution: Win more games. That really might come down to the New York rotation, where Gerrit Cole can't do it all himself. Other than Cole, right now this part of the roster is entirely composed of pitchers who are out, unproductive or inconsistent.
15. San Diego Padres
Sim wins: 83.3 (change: +3.6)
Probabilities: 2% (division), 50% (playoffs), 2% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: As the Padres try to rally into one of the NL's lower-seeded playoff slots, which last year was their starting point for a run to the NLCS, they have hung in the chase with some star-level production in the middle of the infield. That production has not come from where you'd expect. Ha-Seong Kim has staked a claim as the best second baseman in baseball by producing at a level that in some seasons (not this one, alas) would have him mentioned as a prime MVP candidate. His defensive metrics have been terrific all season but his bat has continued to ascend alongside the glove: Since June 19, Kim has hit .353/.451/.582 with 10 homers and 13 stolen bases. Xander Bogaerts hasn't been bad this season (.730 OPS), but his numbers, particularly away from Petco Park (.685 OPS), have left him as the low man in the Padres' big four below Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto and Manny Machado. Kim has filled the production void, but if Bogaerts could get rolling ... look out.
16. Boston Red Sox
Sim wins: 83 (change: +1.2)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 7% (playoffs), 0% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: It's not often you can point to a team trying to simultaneously make the playoffs and avoid last place, but that's where the Red Sox and Yankees stand in the AL East. If Boston finishes in the cellar, it would mark the sixth time in 12 seasons. Remarkably, Boston has made the playoffs in five of the other six seasons and won two World Series. If the Red Sox are going to repeat the good end of that yo-yo franchise pattern, they need to get their starting pitching healthy down the stretch. Even that wouldn't guarantee anything, but it does feel like a prerequisite to a spirited Boston stretch run.
17. Cincinnati Reds
Sim wins: 82.1 (change: 0)
Probabilities: 11% (division), 29% (playoffs), 0% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: The wind has come out of the sails of the young Reds, who were already ice cold before being swept by the last-place Nationals over a weekend series at Great American Ball Park. No team has gotten as much production from rookie players as the Reds, which has been fun to watch, bodes well for Cincinnati's future and is perhaps also a reason the team has regressed in recent weeks. Obviously the Reds aren't going to pull the plug on this push into contention. At the same time, David Bell has to balance this effort with making sure his young pitchers in particular aren't overtaxed, because the Reds are really well positioned for a multiyear run of success.
18. Miami Marlins
Sim wins: 80.7 (change: -4.4)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 18% (playoffs), 0% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: The Marlins are trying, you have to give them that much. While going-forward projections didn't favor a playoff push, they had won enough games by the deadline to justify one. So they added, bringing in Jake Burger, Josh Bell, Jorge Lopez, David Robertson and Ryan Weathers. Their probabilities have been dropping steadily since. But the Marlins remain in view of a wild-card slot. The upcoming schedule is brutal: three games at Cincinnati, three at home against the Yankees, three more at home against the Astros, then three each at the Dodgers and Padres. So the time is now -- as in right now, this moment -- for the Marlins to catch fire one more time.
19. Los Angeles Angels
Sim wins: 80.6 (change: -3.2)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 2% (playoffs), 0% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: Oh boy. This could get really ugly. The Angels emerged as one of the winners of the trade deadline, eschewing a chance to move Shohei Ohtani in favor of a risky but wildly applauded attempt to shore up the roster. You can't blame them for trying, but the upbeat vibe around the team did not translate to on-field production. The Angels lost on deadline day. And they lost their first six games after the deadline, including a four-game sweep at home to the Mariners. Seattle, incidentally, did a mild offload at the deadline, but on the strength of that series leapfrogged the Angels and is into fringe wild-card contention. That was supposed to happen to the Angels. What now? Nothing, is what. The Angels chose their path, and while it was a bold, defensible decision, they can only ride it out and hope the revamped roster catches fire. Getting Mike Trout back at some point would obviously help, but the Angels can't wait that long to start racking up the wins.
20. Arizona Diamondbacks
Sim wins: 80.3 (change: -9.4)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 17% (playoffs), 0% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: The Diamondbacks have been one of the coldest teams in the majors. Their team temperature, per the Bill James metric, was 85.4 degrees at the beginning of July. By the end of the weekend, the D-backs were down to a frigid 28.5 degrees, as their chances to make the playoffs fell from 85% to 17% during that span. Ouch. Arizona nominally added at the deadline, bringing in Tommy Pham and much-needed reliever Paul Sewald. Despite the extended skid, Arizona remains in the thick of a crowded NL wild-card race. The task is clear: Recapture the momentum that for three months made the Diamondbacks one of the great stories of the 2023 season.
21. Cleveland Guardians
Sim wins: 77.9 (change: -2.3)
Probabilities: 7% (division), 7% (playoffs), 0% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: The games-behind column says otherwise, but the Guardians' playoff probabilities have dwindled to around a 1-in-10 shot, both because they trail the Twins in the standings and because their underlying numbers don't portend a Cleveland resurgence. That's even before you consider that an offense so reliant on Jose Ramirez is going to be absent his potent bat for three games because of his brawl with Chicago's Tim Anderson on Sunday. Because the Guardians are nominally in the division race, Terry Francona has to keep his foot on the pedal. But with so many rookies in the rotation, the Guardians will have to stay sharp when it comes to looking forward to 2024.
22. New York Mets
Sim wins: 72.8 (change: -3.6)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 0% (playoffs), 0% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: The Mets are playing out the string and would have to get on a highly improbable hot streak to even get to .500. Honestly, there isn't a whole lot to accomplish with this roster. Other than Kodai Senga, the rotation now looks very stopgappy, and keeping Senga's innings down might be the only key task. In the lineup, Brett Baty hasn't been able to produce at the plate, and getting him pointed in the right direction heading into the offseason would be nice. It might be time to get a first big league look at prospect Ronny Mauricio.
23. St. Louis Cardinals
Sim wins: 72.8 (change: -1.9)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 0% (playoffs), 0% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: Adam Wainwright won't get the same storybook ending to his career as his longtime teammates and friends Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina enjoyed last year. Wainwright needs two wins to get to 200 for his career, but Wainwright has won just three of his 14 outings this season and sports a 7.81 ERA. That's really what the end of the Cardinals' season is about, that and answering the many, many questions about what went wrong during this disappointing campaign.
24. Pittsburgh Pirates
Sim wins: 72.1 (change: -2)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 0% (playoffs), 0% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: The Pirates have obviously fallen way off the pace since their early-season stay atop the NL Central. Pittsburgh dropped far enough back to justify its front office dealing away stopgap veterans like Carlos Santana, Rich Hill and Ji Man Choi. Still, the Pirates have not collapsed and continue to play competitive baseball. While they won't charge back into the playoff race, there is a real chance for them to generate momentum and excitement heading into the offseason. Keeping rookies Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez producing down the stretch would certainly aid that cause. So would getting Oneil Cruz back in the lineup, which apparently could happen by early September, according to recent injury updates.
25. Detroit Tigers
Sim wins: 70.9 (change: -0.4)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 0% (playoffs), 0% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: Obviously A.J. Hinch wants to do what he can to put young producers like Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal in the best possible position to make a 2024 leap. Let's face it, though: The next eight weeks are the last eight weeks we get to watch Miguel Cabrera swing a bat in the major leagues. We should relish it while we can. Cabrera has homered but once this season, so it's unlikely he has one more vintage power surge in him. But if he does ... Cabrera's 508 career homers are just one back of Gary Sheffield for 26th on the career leaderboard, while Mel Ott (511), Ernie Banks (512) and Eddie Mathews (512) aren't far away.
26. Washington Nationals
Sim wins: 70.8 (change: +4.5)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 0% (playoffs), 0% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: The Nationals have been surprisingly competitive all season. Lately, they've been way better than that and suddenly are one of baseball's hottest teams. The Nats aren't in the playoff race or anything like that, but because their continual improvement has been driven by solid play from so many young players, such as Josiah Gray, CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore and Riley Adams, it's become an exciting time in D.C. The goal from here on out is to maintain this feeling of progression into the offseason, possibly by overtaking the Mets in the standings and finishing out of the NL East basement.
27. Chicago White Sox
Sim wins: 68.2 (change: -4.9)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 0% (playoffs), 0% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: Not to steal Pedro Grifol's thunder, but we have additional thoughts. The White Sox's prodigious bout of offloading at the deadline stripped down the big league roster, which at least allows us to see the core of next year's team with great clarity. In that group: Tim Anderson (probably), Yoan Moncada, Andrew Vaughn, Eloy Jimenez and team cornerstone Luis Robert Jr. On the pitching staff, you're looking at Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech. Things could be worse. In addition to getting that group pointed in the right direction, the White Sox need to figure out who might be ready to augment the core next season. Oscar Colas? Gregory Santos? Any of the deadline pickups, such as catcher Korey Lee, who is in Triple-A?
28. Colorado Rockies
Sim wins: 61.4 (change: +1.4)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 0% (playoffs), 0% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: Three good stories from the Rockies' position player group need to be assessed by what it means for the 2024 Rox. Ezequiel Tovar increasingly looks like a keeper at shortstop, and Bud Black just needs to keep him pointed in the right direction. Nolan Jones has been a revelation, especially when you consider he's been even better away from Coors (.859 OPS) than at home (.812). The lefty swinger has also raked against lefty pitching, and it sure looks like Colorado can pencil him as an everyday player going forward. Finally, Brenton Doyle has off-the-charts defensive metrics but hasn't hit. Can his bat justify an everyday-ish role?
29. Kansas City Royals
Sim wins: 54.9 (change: +0.6)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 0% (playoffs), 0% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: The Royals have to do some hard assessment and correction with their young players. The organization's only hope of moving in the right direction is for the players to shore up their weaknesses. For instance, MJ Melendez is a converted catcher who doesn't run the bases well and has posted horrific metrics as an outfielder. So he really needs to hit. Well, nearly 1,000 plate appearances into his big league career, Melendez is hitting .220/.306/.378. He hits the ball hard, so why hasn't he produced more on contact? Even Bobby Witt Jr., whose counting numbers have started to resemble those of the future star he was ordained to be, has been rolling lately not because he's improved his swing decisions but because he has actually become even more aggressive. Will that work in the long run?
30. Oakland Athletics
Sim wins: 47.6 (change: +0.9)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 0% (playoffs), 0% (title)
End-of-season prime directive: You can be angry at the Oakland organization all you want. It deserves your ire. But you have to give the personnel in the clubhouse credit for plugging away in the worst of circumstances. Mark Kotsay's team is still fighting, as evidenced by its two wins this past weekend over Bay Area rival San Francisco. Still, this team is the worst hitting, pitching and fielding club in the majors. The average simulation has the Athletics safely side-stepping the all-time loss mark, but Oakland isn't out of the woods in that regard: The sims have Oakland losing 121 or more games 7.6% of the time. Hey, avoiding historical ignominy is something to shoot for.