A near mythical home ground advantage, all the momentum from a stirring series opener at the Adelaide Oval, and an opponent beset by misfortune and indecision. On the surface, a third series win in four years almost appears a fate accompli for the Maroons. While the Blues are being forced to rejig a spine, correct a bench rotation and tinker with a starting forward pack (just a few of many possible overhaul areas), Queensland face only two forced changes to the team that ran out 26-18 winners in Adelaide.
While it would be foolish to assume the Maroons need only turn up to get it done at Suncorp Stadium, they'll be best served by not tinkering with the squad that did the business first up.
Reece Walsh will add another notch to what should be a long Origin journey, and when the series is all run and done it will be interesting to see how the 20-year-old has coped. There were signs of fatigue from Walsh in Brisbane's Round 14 win over Cronulla, less than 72 hours after game one. Not as much intent off the ball, and nowhere near the regular number of incisions on it.
Anyone who watches Walsh closely will have noted the dip in energy, and time will tell if any physical or mental lethargy seeps into the Origin arena. Signs improved dramatically against the Knights in Round 15, with Walsh pitching himself into battle against an equally dazzling Kalyn Ponga and shaking things off with 215 run metres, two line breaks, and a gun slinging pair of try assists. The electrifying fullback battle likely had many Queenslanders wondering what a Maroons side containing both of them might look like; certainly a discussion for another time.
Selwyn Cobbo was the beneficiary of Walsh's brilliance in his return against the Knights; two tries and 15 powerful carries confirming his readiness for Maroons selectors; after the 21-year-old missed the Sharks game with a sore hip and spent the week on light duties.
Murray Taulagi did more than enough in Origin I to return, particularly in defence. The nerveless 24-year-old has big game temperament in spades, and is the type of player Queensland will look to over a long period, when fit and in reasonable club form.
Standing by if either falter; Corey Oates. The veteran wouldn't disappoint if called upon, backing up his 200+ metre return against the Sharks with 183 metres and eight tackle breaks against Newcastle. It will be fascinating to see which way the Queensland selectors go if Cobbo or Taulagi are ruled out, with Storm high-flyer Xavier Coates also finding himself in many (ESPN's included) starting sides ahead of game one.
Hamiso Tabuai Fidow has held his head high in a dire fortnight after his two-try heroics in Adelaide. Sitting out the Dolphins big loss to the Warriors, he returned to compile two tries and 187 run metres in a record demolition at the hands of Manly. The 21-year-old's place is not in dispute, despite the result; his speed proved a game breaking difference in game one, while his flawless defensive reads reflected a guy in a beautiful place with his game.
Val Holmes will return as his senior centre partner, cooling the heels in a bye week and spending plenty of time reflecting on a string of game one defensive lapses on his edge. Goalkicking, line running, support and creativity remain key strengths; Holmes ran for 139 metres and laid on a silky try assist in Adelaide. The Maroons will back him to tighten up off the ball and continue his work as a pillar of composure in the three quarter line.
Daly Cherry-Evans was a steady hand (aside from one crucial dropped ball) in Adelaide, and imperious in Manly's 58-18 Round 15 rout of the Dolphins at Brookvale. Substitute out his combinations with Lachlan Croker, Tom Trbojevic and Josh Schuster for link ups with Ben Hunt, Tabuai-Fidow and Cameron Munster, and Queensland will be smiling. Hopefully Billy Slater was taking notes watching his state captain challenging the line with 11 probing runs, and unleashing Trbojevic and Reuben Garrick in the middle third of the field. An attacking dimension beckons here for Queensland, after heavily favoring the edges in game one.
DCE's remarkable Maroons career resurgence has barely slowed down since he lifted the impossible shield in an 'unwinnable' 2020 series. Right by his side throughout- for the most part- has been Cameron Munster. They say Origin is all about the moments, and so the mercurial pivot proved in game one. It's difficult to accurately describe his scything 73rd minute effort to find Tabuai-Fidow. Perhaps a 'slow motion sand crab,' is the best fit. Sideways, moving with very little velocity, yet beats them all and offloads to give a 12-man Maroons outfit the ascendancy. Blink, and the 28-year-old was on the spot to score the match-sealer. You can't script it, and there's no one else Queenslanders would like to see in the thick of it when the moments present in game two, with Tom Dearden again watching and learning as 18th man.
Ben Hunt and Harry Grant are the games finest one-two punch, and nothing needs to change there for game two. Hunt to start, Grant to inject, Queensland to benefit. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui could be considered lucky for not elbowing his way out of contention against the Tigers. The arms up play that ended the series for Api Koroisau, arguably the Blues best in game one, was deemed a non-event by the NRL. Tino blamed the media for over hyping his running style, the media bit back, and ultimately none of it mattered. The match review committee deemed the action not to be careless, offered a technical explanation, and the Maroons wiped the anxious sweat beads from their collective brows. Expect the Titans skipper to start game two; Queensland are a more dangerous prospect with him on the field.
Reuben Cotter cemented the suspicions of many with a tireless effort in game one; he's made for it and will likely start again, unless his versatility is called upon to solve Queensland's background conundrum (more on that shortly).
Lindsay Collins returns after his recent ascension to the books of Origin folklore, courtesy of a last-gasp ascension over club captain James Tedesco. The Roosters firebrand will come off the bench in all likelihood, where Tom Flegler should get another chance despite moments of error and ill-discipline in a relatively quiet series opener. The 23-year-old future Dolphin has the makings of a rolled-gold Origin enforcer, if he can just iron out some of the kinks. Queensland selectors will do well to persist, despite Storm veteran Christian Welch lurking.
Here is where it gets murky for the Maroons. Voids left by the injured Tom Gilbert and Jai Arrow have opened up a back row and bench berth respectively, and the candidates list is longer than the pre-match beer queues at Suncorp Stadium. David Fifita retains his starting second-row place after a powerful display, and Pat Carrigan is a starting Maroon for as long as his body allows him to be. Expect the Broncos talisman to return at lock, barring a rejig.
Available to fill the two voids are names including (but not limited to) Dolphins juke box Felise Kaufusi, Cowboys tyro Jeremiah Nanai, Parramatta's J'Maine Hopgood, Canberra's red-headed rage machine Cory Horsburgh and recent Maroons mainstay Kurt Capewell. Balance is everything here for Queensland. They struck the right chords in game one, working tirelessly despite deficits in possession and territory. The brains trust will want complementary re-enforcements for game two.
Kaufusi seems the obvious pick despite not playing since his wild swinging arm on Welch in Round 12. Wayne Bennett has questioned his ability to rein in the aggression, but that won't keep him out. Slater will turn to Kaufusi on merit of his 14 games experience, big match temperament, and tag as 'most likely to rattle whoever replaces Cleary.'
There's been a few late calls for Nanai to return to the arena now he's fit again, and they have merit. The 20-year-old is a player that things happen around, a trait that's already been seen in a fledgling Origin career. He's been described as having the potential to be the game's best ever forward by no less than Phil Gould, and may have found a way in, even without the injuries to Gilbert and Arrow. Regardless of minimal match time in recent weeks there's little doubt he'll be there at Suncorp, it's just a question of where.
If Kaufusi starts, does Nanai bring the grunt provided by Arrow off the pine in Adelaide, coupled with his ability to offload, create and hit some potential match-breaking lines? Or does Kaufusi get some match fitness (and good behaviour) under his belt in club land, opening the door to a Nanai/Fifita backrow combination and a home debut for the likes of Horsburgh? As it stands, it's difficult to see a way in for the rampaging yet ill-disciplined Raider, who may well go on to play 20 Origins eventually. For now, the 25-year-old's penchant for pyrotechnics might just bring greater risk than Slater desires with the series there for the taking (and Kaufusi, Fleger etc already bringing it). At best Horsburgh will claim a place in the extended list.
Capewell appears to be a square peg in this series. Despite his class and utility value over a nine-game Origin career, the Charleville product has been quiet for Brisbane and is unlikely to be deemed the best bench option, having fallen behind Fifita in the pecking order. Hopgood is raw and fearsome, but he'll struggle to find a way through this log jam.
Slater pulled a few rabbits out of his hat ahead of game one, and the gamble paid off. Nanai starting with Kaufusi could well be the big surprise for game two, with a shift of Fifita to lock, Carrigan to prop, and Cotter to the bench. It's a highly unlikely outcome, with the more logical option being Nanai reclaiming his maroon threads via the No.17 jersey, Kaufusi targeting rib cages from the opening whistle, and the rest retaking their places from Adelaide.