When the Associated Press changed its format to allow NFL MVP voters to make their top five selections -- instead of picking a single player -- it was an overdue and welcome change. But I want more.
A top five is fun, but you know what's better? A top 10. Actually, a top 25 would be ideal, to really get to some interesting names. A top 50 maybe? If we're doing top 50, might as well do 100. So I did just that and put together a 100-player Most Valuable Player ballot for the 2022 NFL season.
I enjoy award season because it forces us to draw lines in the sand. We can all agree Nick Bosa, Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons were phenomenal this year. But who was the best? In football, award decisions aren't always as tough as this year's Defensive Player of the Year race, and the MVP is rightfully dominated by quarterbacks. That's why I wanted a 100-player ballot -- to work in questions of positional value and dig below the elite of the elites.
Before we get into it, a few words on the process:
This is a purely descriptive exercise. It's simply a measure of who generated more value in 2022.
The ballot, obviously, represents my opinion. That opinion is naturally inclined toward data-based evidence -- ranging from pass block win rates to our Receiver Tracking Metrics. I also relied on qualitative analysis such as Pro Football Focus grades, awards (All-Pro teams) and the opinions of colleagues and people that work in the league.
How did I decide to reconcile valuing different positions? I focused on how much value a player created relative to an average starter at their position. This means quarterbacks will dominate the top of the list because the difference between the best quarterback and an average quarterback is much larger than the difference between the best guard and an average guard. But it also means there can be no more than 16 quarterbacks, because any player outside the top half is a relative negative, since a team can only start one QB at a time.
Let's get to the ballot.
1. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs
This wasn't close, and that wasn't due to Jalen Hurts' injury. Mahomes was the most valuable player before Hurts got hurt. He led the league in QBR by a substantial margin -- his 77.6 was 6.4 points better than the next closest player, Josh Allen -- despite playing on a team without star receivers (though he does have the best tight end in the league and a strong offensive line). In terms of points above average, which is essentially the volume version of QBR, Mahomes dominated with 66.9. Allen had 54.7, while Hurts 38.7. There are plenty of spots on this list to debate, but this isn't one of them.
After a 2020 ACL injury, Nick Bosa hired personal chef, Ana Machado, to improve his diet. See how his improved diet translates onto the field.
2. Josh Allen, QB, Bills
It's hard to lead quarterbacks in turnovers committed and be the second-most valuable player in the league, but here we are. Allen's QBR and points above average both ranked second to Mahomes. He generated the second- and fourth-most EPA on medium and deep passes, respectively, and was extremely efficient despite playing on one of the league's pass-heaviest teams. Part of Allen's value was through his legs, as he generated the second-most EPA on scrambles (only behind Justin Fields) and the fifth-most on designed QB carries.
3. Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles
Hurts was in a good situation and maximized the opportunity. He dominated the most on the ground, generating almost double the team EPA on designed runs of any other quarterback. But he was an efficient passer, too. Hurts ranked eighth in EPA per dropback (ninth if we remove scrambles) and was accurate. His plus-3% completion percentage over expectation ranked second, per NFL Next Gen Stats. And Hurts was superb at turnover avoidance, giving the ball away on 1.2% of his action plays.
4. Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals
On the surface, Burrow's stats significantly trail the top three players on this list. But he also dealt with something the others didn't: a terrible offensive line. Cincinnati ranked 30th in pass block win rate and were somewhat bailed out because Burrow improved at sack avoidance. Yet despite that weak O-line, Burrow (helped by receivers Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase) led a Bengals offense that ranked fifth in EPA per dropback, behind only the Chiefs and Bills.
5. Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings
There's no way that Minnesota improbably goes 13-4 without Jefferson powering an offense that saw quarterback Kirk Cousins have a somewhat down year numbers-wise. Jefferson led the league in receiving yards (1,809), and his Receiver Tracking Metrics were exceptional, with an 83/81/51 Open/Catch/YAC Score triple-slash. That gave him an 87 Overall Score, behind only two receivers who ran substantially fewer routes than Jefferson.
6. Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins
The Dolphins relied so heavily on Hill, and he delivered. He managed an astounding 33% target rate (the league-high) and produced 3.4 yards per route run (another league-high) and 3.7 yards per route run vs. man coverage (second only to the Broncos' Jerry Jeudy).
7. Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers
Herbert's season didn't quite live up to the lofty expectations entering the season, when most -- myself included -- thought he would comfortably be in the top tier. But the Chargers' playoff berth was largely due to him, as they finished eighth in points above average despite playing with a below-average offensive line and his receivers missing time.
8. Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars
Lawrence's numbers don't jump off the page, but I'm partial to the notion that Lawrence carried an offense without a ton of help. The Jaguars ranked 31st in pass block win rate, for example. Kevin Cole illustrates the point quite well with his adjusted quarterback efficiency, which also notes that Lawrence played with a group of receivers that were subpar at getting open, per our Receiver Tracking Metrics, and had a high rate of drops.
9. Myles Garrett, EDGE, Browns
I went back and forth for days on how to stack the top three edge rushers, but ultimately the metrics point me toward Garrett. The Browns' pass-rusher tied for second in the league in sacks and was third in pass rush win rate despite facing the highest double-team rate at edge. In other words, despite the extra attention and playing on a worse team with fewer leads and therefore fewer sack opportunities, he still managed 16 sacks.
Double team rate at Edge (x) by pass rush win rate at Edge (y) for the 2022 NFL season.
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) January 13, 2023
(ESPN / NFL Next Gen Stats) pic.twitter.com/PDSa4L5xTs
10. Nick Bosa, EDGE, 49ers
Bosa led the league in sacks with 18.5, but that's not his most impressive statistic. What makes Bosa's 2022 season really stand out is his 48 quarterback hits. That number is 13 clear of second-place Maxx Crosby and 21 and 22 more hits than Parsons and Garrett, respectively.
11. Micah Parsons, EDGE, Cowboys
Parsons absolutely dominated the early phase of pass rushes, recording a 30% pass rush win rate from edge (best in the league by several percentage points). That pass rush win rate was also a couple points higher than what he did in his rookie season despite the fact he was doubled substantially more -- 26% of the time at edge, sixth-highest in the league.
12. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins
When Tagovailoa was on the field, the Dolphins averaged 0.13 EPA per play. That's better than the Cowboys with Dak Prescott on the field, the Bengals with Burrow or even the Bills with Allen! There are reasonable questions over how much of that is driven by Tagovailoa himself, but when he was out, the Dolphins' offense crumbled. If it weren't for his own missed time -- Tagovailoa only played 56% of the QB action plays that Herbert did -- he would be higher on this list.
13. A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles
14. Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
15. Jared Goff, QB, Lions
Goff finished the season fifth in QBR and led an offense that ranked third in EPA per dropback, only behind the Chiefs and Bills. And he did it without a lot of help from teammates. His offensive line was average in pass protection, and while Amon-Ra St. Brown was very good, the Lions' receiving group wasn't particularly impressive as a whole.
16. Chris Jones, DT, Chiefs
Jones was a dominant pass-rusher in 2022, to the point where his pass rush win rate as a defensive tackle (21.5%) was more than double the league average at the position. He recorded 15.5 sacks but also 18 sacks created, which is where we credit the sack to the first player to achieve a pass rush win on a play that resulted in a sack.
Double team rate at defensive tackle (x) by pass rush win rate at defensive tackle (y) for the 2022 NFL season.
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) January 13, 2023
(ESPN / NFL Next Gen Stats) pic.twitter.com/wXJS0c5CdV
17. Maxx Crosby, EDGE, Raiders
What makes Crosby exceptional is high-level play against both the pass and the run. Crosby recorded 12.5 sacks off a 17% pass rush win rate (which ranked 17th at edge) while also recording a 33% run stop win rate (ranked second at edge). Crosby also ranked second in the league and led all defensive linemen in plus-EPA, in which a defender receives EPA credit when they show up in the play-by-play on positive defensive plays.
18. Stefon Diggs, WR, Bills
19. James Bradberry, CB, Eagles
Bradberry's coverage numbers in 2022 were absurd. Among outside corners with at least 250 coverage snaps, Bradberry ranked first in yards per coverage snap allowed (0.7) and EPA allowed (minus-32.8), per NFL Next Gen Stats. Those are elite numbers from a player on the best secondary in the league.
20. Sauce Gardner, CB, Jets
Believe the hype. Gardner instantly became one of the very best corners in the NFL as a rookie. His minus-28.8 EPA allowed trailed only Bradberry among outside corners, and his 0.8 yards per coverage snap allowed ranked in the top 10. If anything, the feedback I got on Gardner was that he was placed too low on this list.
21. Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys
22. Haason Reddick, EDGE, Eagles
23. Davante Adams, WR, Raiders
24. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys
25. Lane Johnson, OT, Eagles
Not only did Johnson lead all tackles in pass block win rate in 2022 (95%), but he did it with just a 27% double-team rate -- the fifth-lowest among qualifying tackles -- making it even more impressive.
26. Matthew Judon, EDGE, Patriots
Considering his 15.5 sacks, the question on Judon might be why so low? He was valuable, of course. But the raw production numbers overstate his impact. It's not just that Judon posted a 13% pass rush win rate at edge, which is below average, but also that his sacks weren't very quick. Among players with 10 or more sacks, none had a higher average time to sack (5.09 seconds) than Judon. Put the two numbers together, and it starts to paint the picture of a player who was productive and valuable, but quite possibly because of the circumstances around him, including a strong secondary.
27. Andrew Thomas, OT, Giants
Thomas has emerged as a top-flight left tackle, anchoring a surprisingly effective Giants offense. One area where Thomas stood out was a lack of penalties. He was flagged just once all year, for a 5-yard illegal formation penalty.
28. Pat Surtain II, CB, Broncos
Measuring defensive backs partly requires evaluating the absence of action because deterring targets is a skill. That's exactly what Surtain did. With a 12.5% target rate that was a league-low among corners, no one forced opposing QBs to look another direction more than Surtain.
29. Laremy Tunsil, OT, Texans
30. Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Steelers
31. Dexter Lawrence, DT, Giants
What makes Lawrence's production -- 7.5 sacks and a 17% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle (fourth-best) -- so impressive is that he did it while mostly playing nose tackle. In fact, 288 of Lawrence's 444 pass rushes this season came as a 0- or 1-technique, per NFL Next Gen Stats. As a result, he had the ninth-highest double-team rate at defensive tackle but still made an impact in the pass rush.
32. Trent Williams, OT, 49ers
33. Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks
The 1,033 yards that Lockett recorded this season undersells his impact. In our Receiver Tracking Metrics, Lockett ranked second in Overall Score, only behind A.J. Brown. He ranked second and fourth, respectively, in Open Score and Catch Score. And part of me has a hard time shaking the notion that Russell Wilson's play plummeted as soon as he left Seattle's receivers, while Geno Smith had the year of his life while playing with Lockett and DK Metcalf. Correlation isn't always causation ... but it could be.
34. Geno Smith, QB, Seahawks
35. Tom Brady, QB, Buccaneers
36. Quinnen Williams, DT, Jets
37. Terry McLaurin, WR, Commanders
His 2.2 yards per route run is pretty good. But it's great when you consider Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz were the quarterbacks throwing passes to McLaurin. McLaurin has always been a strong contested-catch receiver, but his 77 Catch Score this year was narrowly a career-best.
38. Tristan Wirfs, OT, Buccaneers
39. Darius Slay, CB, Eagles
40. Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins
41. Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Bengals
42. Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals
43. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions
44. Aaron Donald, DT, Rams
45. Jaycee Horn, CB, Panthers
46. Kolton Miller, OT, Raiders
In terms of numbers, this was Miller's best pro season by a long shot. His 93% pass block win rate ranked eighth-best among tackles, but it was really the run block win rate (also eighth-best at 82%) which was the huge improvement. Miller had never recorded a RBWR over 67% before this season.
47. Creed Humphrey, C, Chiefs
48. Daniel Jones, QB, Giants
49. Tyson Campbell, CB, Jaguars
It might've gone overlooked considering where he plays, but Campbell had a very strong sophomore season in Jacksonville. I mentioned earlier that Bradberry led the league with 0.7 yards per coverage snap allowed this season, and Campbell was slightly behind Bradberry in second (0.7). Campbell rode a low 14% target rate to that exceptional rate.
50. Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers
The best way to generate value as a running back is to be like McCaffrey. That means generating yards on the ground and through the air. McCaffrey was a solid runner, picking up 82 rush yards over expectation per NFL Next Gen Stats, while simultaneously being the best receiving back in the league. Not only did he record the most receiving yards among running backs (741), but the Receiver Tracking Metrics had him as the best all around-best catching back, too. His 2.2 yards per route run rivals high-end wide receivers.
51. Tariq Woolen, CB, Seahawks
52. Jaire Alexander, CB, Packers
53. Christian Darrisaw, OT, Vikings
54. Brian Burns, EDGE, Panthers
55. Javon Hargrave, DT, Eagles
56. Fred Warner, LB, 49ers
57. Joe Thuney, G, Chiefs
58. D.J. Reed, CB, Jets
59. Zack Martin, G, Cowboys
60. George Kittle, TE, 49ers
There were other tight ends with higher yardage totals, but Kittle's value shined through his efficiency -- 2.0 yards per route run -- and having the best Receiver Tracking Metrics Overall Score for any tight end at 74. Kittle graded out as above average in all three categories (Open, Catch and YAC), and his ability to get open led the way. In a down year for tight ends, there's quite a bit of separation between Kittle and an average starter.
61. Kyle Dugger, S, Patriots
62. DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles
63. Joel Bitonio, G, Browns
64. Justin Simmons, S, Broncos
65. Nick Chubb, RB, Browns
There's no better pure runner in the NFL right now than Chubb. He managed a whopping 389 rush yards over expectation, more than 100 yards better than the next-best back. That wasn't just volume; his 1.3 rush yards over expectation per carry was second in the league only behind Khalil Herbert, who had nowhere near the same volume.
66. Brian O'Neill, OT, Vikings
67. Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens
68. Bobby Wagner, LB, Rams
For all that went wrong with the Rams this year, one thing went very right -- signing Wagner. The former Seahawk ranked sixth in run stop win rate, sixth in plus-EPA and first in PFF grade, and he recorded six sacks.
69. Chris Olave, WR, Saints
Olave's superb rookie season was obfuscated by poor quarterback play. But make no mistake, the former Ohio State receiver was exceptional. His Receiver Tracking Metrics overall score was 77 -- tied for 10th-best -- and his 2.5 yards per route run ranked eighth-best in the league despite playing with Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton. Olave, in my view, is the Offensive Rookie of the Year.
70. Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens
71. Matt Milano, LB, Bills
Milano led all NFL defenders (just beating out Crosby) in a box score-based stat called "Plus-EPA," in which a defender is given the EPA play credit for all positive defensive plays in which they show up in the play-by-play. It's rough and noisy, and it probably overrates some events like fumble recoveries. But to lead the league you have to be productive, and that's exactly what Milano was in 2022.
72. Jason Kelce, C, Eagles
73. Austin Ekeler, RB, Chargers
74. Roquan Smith, LB, Ravens
75. Daron Payne, DT, Commanders
76. Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders
Jacobs had a remarkable season, make no mistake, and I think most will be asking why he's so low on this list. The simple answer is that his 0.5 rush yards over expectation per carry was good but not great, considering his volume. And he didn't add as much in the receiving game as McCaffrey or Ekeler. But the totality of what Jacobs did was still incredibly strong both as a raw total (1,653 rushing yards on 4.9 yards per carry) and against expectation (plus-174).
77. Justin Fields, QB, Bears
78. Josh Sweat, EDGE, Eagles
79. Talanoa Hufanga, S, 49ers
Safety is perhaps the hardest position to quantify, so I'm relying the least on the metrics here than anywhere else. But two numbers jump out for Hufanga. He simultaneously led all defensive backs in run stop win rate (min. 50 run plays in the box) and ranked fifth among safeties in target EPA allowed.
80. Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Lions
On one hand, Hutchinson's play-to-play level impact took a while to get going, as his pass rush win rate was just 12% at edge, below average for the position. But the production? You can't argue against it. Not just the 9.5 sacks, but the three interceptions as well. As a result, he generated minus-21.1 EPA as a nearest defender, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, an absurd number for a defensive lineman.
81. Christian Wilkins, DT, Dolphins
Wilkins has become a run-stuffing force for Miami. He led all defensive tackles in run stop win rate this season with a 46% run stop win rate, and there was the same distance between him and second place (the Jets' Nathan Shepherd at 42.6%) as Shepherd and eighth place. I'm not one to place too much emphasis on tackle numbers, but it's hard to not notice that Wilkins also recorded 98 tackles, 11 more than any other defensive lineman.
82. Von Miller, EDGE, Bills
83. Derwin James Jr., S, Chargers
84. Jeffery Simmons, DT, Titans
85. T.J. Edwards, LB, Eagles
86. Jordan Poyer, S, Bills
87. Alex Highsmith, EDGE, Steelers
88. Cameron Heyward, DT, Steelers
89. Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Dolphins
90. Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jaguars
91. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers
92. Derrick Henry, RB, Titans
93. Demario Davis, LB, Saints
94. Brandon Graham, EDGE, Eagles
In order for a player to qualify for this list while playing less than half their team's defensive snaps, they'd have to do something pretty special. Graham did, registering a 28% pass rush win rate at edge that would have ranked third had he qualified. He also posted 11 sacks and forced two fumbles.
95. David Bakhtiari, OT, Packers
When Bakhtiari was able to play, he was his usual awesome self. Among tackles, he was second in pass block win rate and 10th in run block win rate. He played in only 11 games, and some of those he only played roughly half the snaps. Otherwise, he'd be much higher on this list.
96. Marlon Humphrey, CB, Ravens
97. Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Bills
98. Ronnie Stanley, OT, Ravens
99. Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets