As we preview the NFL season, there's a natural urge for us to point to potential breakout players in 2023. It's a process our experts begin a week after the Super Bowl and through the opening game, which is less than a month away.
Breakout, though, isn't a term that fits every NFL player. A starting quarterback's breakout season might see him contend for MVP votes. For a player bouncing around the bottom of NFL rosters and practice squads, though, breaking out might be earning 17 game checks. We often focus on players at skill positions and their chances of breaking out in larger roles, but there are players who don't ever touch the football who take huge strides forward and help their teams advance to the postseason.
With that in mind, below are 23 players who have breakout potential for the 2023 campaign relative to their reputation and the attention they're getting now. I believe each of these guys can move beyond their current level of play and reach new heights.
I'll start with the notable young players who have already established themselves as great players before working my way down to the rotation players who could emerge as solid starters. I'll also add a section at the bottom for players who don't neatly fit into any group, and how they can regain their stride this season.
Jump to a tier of breakout player:
Pro Bowlers to Superstars
Starters to Pro Bowlers
Rotation to Solid Starters
Post-Hype Candidates
Pro Bowlers to superstars
Let's begin with the players who could become the best at their respective positions this season. These guys are already regarded as stars, but they have first-team All-Pro potential if they reach their ceiling. Several players could fit into this category if everything breaks right for them, but I'll focus on three who stand out as favorites to me.
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars
For a year and a half, Lawrence struggled to live up to the expectations placed on him as one of the top quarterback prospects of the past decade. There was an Urban Meyer-sized explanation for his rookie season in 2021, but he still seemed to be adjusting during the first half of last season. After the Jaguars' loss to the Broncos in London, he completed just over 62% of his passes, averaging 6.6 yards per attempt and had thrown 10 touchdown passes against six picks.
After the trip over the pond, Lawrence morphed into a superstar. He completed 69.7% of his passes over the remainder of the season while averaging 7.4 yards per attempt. He threw 15 touchdown passes against two picks while leading the Jaguars to a division title, including comeback victories over the Cowboys and Ravens. From Week 9 on, his adjusted completion percentage (75.5%) ranked first in the league.
Lawrence's first postseason trip wasn't exactly smooth -- he threw five interceptions in games against the Chargers and Chiefs -- but he did coax another dramatic comeback out of his offense in the home wild-card win. Now, with wide receiver Calvin Ridley added to the mix and another full offseason away from the Meyer era, he has the ability to improve on the player we saw in the second half of 2022. Lawrence is currently eighth in the MVP odds at Caesars Sportsbook and seems capable of something special in Year 3.
Penei Sewell, OT, Lions
Taken six picks after Lawrence in the 2021 draft, Sewell has quickly improved. Much of the rawness to his game that he showed as a rookie in 2021 has been eliminated, as he has been able to convert more of his skills and range to consistently erase opposing pass-rushers. Per the FTN Football Almanac 2023, Sewell's blown block rate was just 3% last season, which was the sixth-best mark in the league among tackles.
For most teams, Sewell would be a superstar left tackle. While he looked impressive during a stint on the blind side as a rookie, the Lions already have Pro Bowl-caliber left tackle Taylor Decker, so Sewell's stuck on the right side. The Eagles' Lane Johnson has been the gold standard of NFL right tackles when healthy over the past decade, but as a player who doesn't even turn 23 until October, Sewell is the best contender to challenge for Johnson's throne.
A.J. Terrell, CB, Falcons
To close observers, Terrell already had his breakout season in 2021. The 2020 first-round pick looked spectacular on tape and by the numbers, as he allowed a passer rating of just 61.0 in coverage, per Pro Football Reference, despite playing behind the league's worst pass rush. I was convinced by what I saw and named him a first-team All-Pro on my year-end list, placing him ahead of stars Jalen Ramsey and Marshon Lattimore.
Terrell wasn't bad in 2022, but the results weren't the same. He gave up two touchdown passes in the Week 1 opener to Saints receiver Michael Thomas and finished the season allowing six scores, which doubled his total from the prior season. Opposing quarterbacks posted a passer rating just north of 102 against him, up by more than 40 points. There wasn't much of a pass rush again from the Falcons, but Terrell slipped by his own lofty standards.
Finally, though, he is getting help. The Falcons brought in as many as seven new starters on the defensive side of the ball this offseason, including star safety and former Bengals standout Jessie Bates III. Calais Campbell and David Onyemata should help up front, while Kaden Elliss surprised as a pass-rusher for the Saints last season. If Terrell and Grady Jarrett don't have to put the defense solely on their backs in 2023, it might unlock a new level from the fourth-year pro. I wouldn't be surprised if Terrell were the best cornerback in the NFC in 2023.
Starters to Pro Bowlers
The most classic example of a breakout player is someone who has already established himself as an NFL starter before taking the leap into a difference-maker. You'll already know about many of these players and might even argue that some of them should be considered Pro Bowl-caliber talents, but I believe they're capable of actually earning postseason honors in 2023.
Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets
Here's a good example for this tier. Wilson was named Offensive Rookie of the Year after he had 83 catches for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns, but he couldn't crack a Pro Bowl roster featuring Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams and Ja'Marr Chase. It's hard to poke any holes in the first three players. While I would have considered bumping Chase because of the time he missed with a hip injury, Wilson might have been stuck behind Jaylen Waddle, Amari Cooper and Christian Kirk, each of whom missed out on their own nods.
Wilson's case was his quarterbacks: He came in around 2.0 yards per route run in an offense with Zach Wilson, Mike White, Joe Flacco and Chris Streveler at quarterback. Now he'll have Aaron Rodgers. Even a diminished Rodgers would be a drastic upgrade on the players Wilson dealt with a year ago, which could propel him into the stratosphere. The upside case for him is obvious.
Will it work out that way? Maybe. Young receivers have typically struggled to find steady footing with Rodgers. Wilson's one issue last season was a habit of dropping passes, which typically admits a young player into the legendary quarterback's doghouse. Like the Jets and their expectations after acquiring Rodgers, Wilson has both a high ceiling and a lower-than-expected floor.
Quinn Meinerz, G, Broncos
Yes, interior offensive linemen can break out, too! Meinerz was drafted to be a rookie backup at guard for the Broncos behind Dalton Risner and Graham Glasgow, but he has been too imposing to keep on the bench for most of the past two seasons. Like a Western version of Cleveland dynamo Wyatt Teller, Meinerz has snaps in which he looks like a moving train on the interior. Over the past two seasons, Denver's success rate on the ground has jumped from 40% without him on the field to just under 44% with him in the mix.
Coach Sean Payton signaled his desire to build through the running game and a strong offensive line this offseason. While Risner and Glasgow left the organization, Payton signed Ravens guard Ben Powers, 49ers tackle Mike McGlinchey and Jaguars blocking tight end Chris Manhertz. The Broncos are getting bigger up front, and Meinerz added 20 pounds this offseason to fit in. If he can stay consistent, he has Pro Bowl upside.
Charles Cross, OT, Seahawks
The Seahawks feel good about the first year of outcomes from the Russell Wilson trade for a variety of reasons. One of the most immediate positive returns came with the first-round pick they netted from the Broncos last year. Cross stepped into the most obvious position of need on Seattle's roster and looked like he belonged from Day 1. Playing every single snap as a rookie, he locked down quarterback Geno Smith's blindside and helped form one of the more promising young duos in football with fellow rookie tackle Abraham Lucas.
Cross wasn't perfect. Stats LLC credited him with six sacks allowed, and he committed seven penalties, including three holding calls. There's still a lot to like here. Young left tackles Rashawn Slater and Jedrick Wills Jr. have set the bar impossibly high by excelling immediately as rookies in previous years, but Cross was well above the standard of the typical debuting left tackle. He should be even better with a year of reps under his belt.
Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Dolphins
Phillips is a problem. Watch Miami games and you'll usually see at least a couple of snaps each week in which he makes the guy across from him look overmatched, even if it's one of the better left tackles in football. He isn't as stout as you might hope an edge defender would be, but he has special speed and bend coming off the ball.
Last season might seem like a step backward for Phillips, who dropped from 8.5 sacks to seven while playing 237 more defensive snaps. But I'm not so sure. He jumped from 16 quarterback knockdowns as a rookie to 25 last season, which tells us he was around passers more often and created more problems, even if it didn't lead to extra sacks. Pass-rushers typically turn about 45% of their knockdowns into sacks, which would have typically yielded a season with 11-plus sacks for Phillips, given those quarterback hits. Can he be Vic Fangio's new Khalil Mack or Von Miller?
Jaquan Brisker, S, Bears
In what amounted to a teaching season for coach Matt Eberflus with the Bears, Brisker was the new coach's most promising pupil. The rookie second-rounder did a little bit of everything in his 15 starts, as he intercepted a pass, produced a team-high four sacks, racked up five tackles for loss and knocked away a couple of throws. Playing down toward the line of scrimmage most often, he also missed only 6.3% of his tackles all season, according to Pro Football Reference.
Some of Brisker's misses were conspicuous -- and injuries slowed him as the season wore on -- but there's an undeniably exciting skill set here. The hope is that he ends up looking something like Chicago's version of Jamal Adams as a player who can use his instincts, timing and toughness to make game-changing plays. Brisker can be a cornerstone piece for Chicago as early as this season if he stays healthy.
Jalen Pitre, S, Texans
Let's finish this section with a sophomore safety in the other conference. Like Brisker, Pitre filled the stat sheet, but it was in a different sort of way. While Brisker played on a defense that typically played with split-safety coverages and asked him to get in the box, Pitre was asked to play as a single-high safety far more often. Pitre didn't get to the quarterback as often -- he racked up one lone sack -- but he came away with five interceptions and eight passes defended.
When there was a play to be made in the Houston defense, Pitre was typically the one making it. Per the FTN Football Almanac 2023, his 155 plays (tackles, assists, deflections, interceptions, forced fumbles and fumbles recovered) amounted to 16.7% of Houston's overall defensive incidents last season. That was the league's second-best mark among safeties, a figure topped only by Chargers superstar Derwin James Jr..
Pitre should have more talent in front of him in 2023, which might improve his efficiency, albeit at the expense of some volume.
Rotation players to solid starters
In this section, I'll touch on the players emerging in regular roles last season without advancing to the status of full-time players or every-week starters. Some might not have played for significant stretches because of injury a year ago, but they should be Week 1 starters.
Skyy Moore, WR, Chiefs
Kadarius Toney might have been an obvious pick for this list, but the former Giants speedster hasn't been able to stay healthy for any significant stretch. He's already questionable for Week 1 after knee surgery in late July. The Chiefs believe Toney can become a star -- and Justyn Ross is looking like the player who many expected to be a first-round pick before suffering a run of injuries -- but it's just tough to count on either of those players to be on the field for even 500 offensive snaps.
With JuJu Smith-Schuster leaving for the Patriots, Moore is the most likely candidate to step in and play when the Chiefs have two or three wide receivers on the field. The 2022 second-rounder struggled to attract regular playing time and was a liability as a punt returner during his rookie campaign, but he still averaged 1.6 yards per route run.
It's usually dangerous to back wide receivers who don't show much in Year 1, but one pre-draft comp for Moore struggled early in his career before turning into a Pro Bowler. Golden Tate was anonymous for his first year and a half with the Seahawks before growing into a more significant role and eventually emerging as a star in Detroit. If Moore can stay on the field for the Chiefs, he should be able to produce even quicker.
Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE, Titans
Tennessee is coming off a lost 2022 season, but one of the bright spots from the frustrating campaign was its rookie tight end. Okonkwo made his presence known with a stretch in which he seemed to get open for a long catch every week. He finished with four catches of 30-plus yards; the only tight ends with more were Travis Kelce, George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson and Hunter Henry.
Okonkwo averaged 2.9 yards per route run on 154 routes; the only player with 100 routes or more who averaged more yards per route run last year was Tyreek Hill. Of course, most players ran far more routes than him. If we look back through recent history at tight ends who were wildly efficient while running about 10 routes per game, the results are mixed. Ladarius Green and Austin Seferian-Jenkins never grew into larger roles as receivers, but Jared Cook and Jimmy Graham were similarly efficient at the beginning of their careers before emerging as standouts in larger roles.
Playing on a team that runs at one of the league's highest rates and with DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks at wide receiver, Okonkwo's won't attract huge target numbers. If he can run even five more routes per game, though, he could push toward being a top-10 tight end.
Jordan Davis, DT, Eagles
It was lost in the shuffle during an otherwise incredible season for the Eagles, but Davis wasn't as immediately impactful during his rookie campaign as his college tape would have suggested. He was sidelined in midseason by a high ankle sprain, and when the Eagles added Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph during his time on injured reserve, he didn't regain his role. After playing about 33% of the defensive snaps before his injury, he was down to 18% after returning. Most of his playoff playing time came with the Eagles leading by multiple scores in the second half.
With Suh and Joseph off the roster, Davis will assume a larger role as the team's primary nose tackle. Fletcher Cox and Jalen Carter will be in place to try and create pass-rushing opportunities on the interior, so that won't be Davis' primary responsibility, but he needs to help improve Philadelphia's rush defense. The Eagles had the league's seventh-worst success rate on rush defense last season and were the league's worst defense in power situations. Davis can play an essential role in helping them firm up on the ground.
Chris "Mad Dog" Russo cites the weakness of the NFC to explain why the Eagles have a higher chance of returning to the Super Bowl than the Chiefs.
Zach Tom, OL, Packers
I have Tom listed as an offensive lineman because it's unclear exactly where he will play in 2023. As a rookie, he lined up everywhere but center at one point or another, including stretches protecting Aaron Rodgers' blindside at left tackle. He finished the season allowing just one sack and without committing a single penalty.
After starting camp at right tackle, Tom has been taking snaps as Green Bay's first-team center. Blessed with a healthy offensive line for the first time in years, the Packers seem to be trying to find scenarios where Tom and 2022 breakout lineman Yosh Nijman can be on the field simultaneously. It's unclear where Tom will end up playing in the long term, but he appears to be the latest in a series of midround linemen to turn into standouts for the Packers.
Cam Taylor-Britt, CB, Bengals
The Bengals' secondary is in flux. Starting safeties Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell and cornerback Eli Apple all left in free agency. Chidobe Awuzie is coming back after tearing an ACL. Veteran Mike Hilton is back in the slot -- and they have multiple high draft picks to insert in the lineup -- but this secondary will need somebody to rely upon early in the season.
The key player is Taylor-Britt, who filled in for Apple and then Awuzie after missing the first six games of 2022. The second-rounder was an every-down player from Week 8 onward, allowing a 102.9 passer rating in coverage, per Pro Football Reference. He got better as the season went along. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he allowed a completion percentage of 16.8 points under expectation over the final month of the season, a stretch which included playoff games against the Bills and Chiefs.
Now, Taylor-Britt enters the season as an essential starter. The Bengals don't get their titanic battle with the Chiefs until New Year's Eve, but they'll get the Browns, Ravens, Rams and Seahawks before their Week 7 bye. Last season, coach Zac Taylor's team couldn't carry over their white-hot end to 2021 into a hot start in 2022. If Cincinnati wants to pull that off this season, it will need Taylor-Britt and his fellow young teammates in the secondary to hit the ground running.
Martin Emerson, CB, Browns
There weren't many Browns defenders who came out of last season looking like winners. Myles Garrett had another dominant season as usual, but Denzel Ward, John Johnson III and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah didn't live up to expectations. Deshaun Watson's play attracted attention, but even with his dismal stretch after returning from a suspension, the Browns ranked eighth in the NFL in DVOA. They missed out on a postseason berth because the defense didn't help coach Kevin Stefanski's team win games.
One of the few exceptions who had a promising 2022 was Emerson, the team's best cornerback for stretches as a rookie. The third-round pick spent most of his time in the slot, but he also moved around the field, most notably limiting Mike Evans to 31 yards on nine targets in a November victory over the Buccaneers. He finished the season with a 77.6 passer rating allowed in coverage. New defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz thrived in Philadelphia when the Eagles unexpectedly got a career season out of corner Patrick Robinson in the slot in 2017; Emerson has to be equally valuable to the Browns to get their defense right this season.
Cobie Durant, CB, Rams
To say that the Rams are rebuilding on defense would be an understatement. Three of the 14 defenders who played 35% or more of the defensive snaps during their run to a Super Bowl in 2021 are still on the roster. Their only projected regular in the secondary who isn't on a rookie deal is cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon, who signed for just over the minimum in June. Their roster looks like an attempt to isolate just how dominant defensive tackle Aaron Donald can play when he's surrounded by 10 players who aren't household names.
Coordinator Raheem Morris & Co. need to find building blocks around Donald on defense by the end of the season, and Durant seems well-positioned to become one of those success stories. The fourth-round pick impressed on 281 snaps as a rookie a year ago, intercepting three passes and taking one of them to the house. Now, he'll move into the "Star" role in the Vic Fangio-style defense Morris oversees for the Rams, taking over for departed superstar Jalen Ramsey.
Expecting Ramsey's mix of coverage ability and toughness would be a big ask, but if Durant can grow into that role as 2023 rolls along, it'll give the Rams a much-needed solution at a key position on their defense.
Post-hype candidates
These are the players who, for one reason or another, have fallen off the breakout radar and aren't getting the appropriate level of attention heading into the season. Last year, the classic example of a post-hype breakout would have been Raiders running back Josh Jacobs, who went from playing in the Hall of Fame game and having his fifth-year option declined to leading the league in rushing yards. These players don't neatly fit into any of the categories above, but they can regain that attention in 2023.
Mac Jones, QB, Patriots
I've repeatedly discussed how little the Patriots did last season to create easy, confidence-building completions for Jones. Their play-action rate was down, and their RPO game was virtually nonexistent. It's one thing to do that with a big-game hunter or a fogey at quarterback, but Jones posted video game numbers on RPOs during his time at Alabama.
As Ollie Connelly wrote about at length in his newsletter, adding coordinator Bill O'Brien and a dollop of the offense both Jones and O'Brien used during their respective times at Alabama should make life easier for the third-year quarterback. The Patriots added a tough wide receiver in JuJu Smith-Schuster and a potential contested catch receiver in Mike Gesicki. Jones was regarded as one of the league's most promising young quarterbacks after his first season in New England, only to visibly take a step backward last season. I believe he'll look more like the player we expected to see a year ago.
Antonio Gibson, RB, Commanders
Gibson's usage in Washington hasn't made much sense. Drafted out of Memphis as a slot receiver and gadget player with 34 college carries, he didn't land the receiving role his skill set would have suggested. He has about as many carries (574) as routes run (613) over his first three seasons. Compare that to Austin Ekeler, who might be Gibson's best-case outcome: Ekeler has run nearly twice as many routes (1,014) than he has carries (526) over that same time frame.
Let's get a third back in the mix and talk about Jerick McKinnon, who ran 318 routes and caught nine touchdown passes while taking just 72 carries last season. The Commanders aren't going to throw the ball near as often as the Chiefs, but new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy seems set to carve out more of a passing role for Gibson, who ceded that work to J.D. McKissic at times in Washington. The McKinnon role might not be three-down work for a player in the final year of his deal, but Gibson could be a valuable free agent if he establishes himself as a passing-down back.
Byron Murphy, CB, Vikings
For much of his tenure in Arizona, Murphy was the best cornerback on a team that didn't have good players at the position. He emerged as a valuable slot cornerback, but he struggled when pushed into a broader role in 2022. His passer rating allowed jumped from 87.6 to 101.1, while the Cardinals were 15 points of QBR better without Murphy on the field. After missing just two games in his first three seasons, he was out for the second half of 2022 with a back injury.
The Vikings needed help everywhere at cornerback, but another factor appealed to them: Murphy's age. At 25, he was one of the youngest free agents on the open market, and the hope will be that a more modern, dynamic defense under Brian Flores gets the most out of Murphy's skill set. Flores has typically asked his corners to play man more often than most other coordinators; Murphy will get a chance to prove whether he's up to the task. On a two-year deal, he could land a much larger contract in free agency in 2025.
Clelin Ferrell, EDGE, 49ers
Let's finish with a series of edge rushers in drastically different situations. The first one up is Ferrell, who became the poster child for what went wrong during the second Jon Gruden era with the Raiders. A promising defensive end with prototypical size at Clemson, Ferrell was expected to be drafted somewhere toward the bottom half of Round 1 in 2019. The Raiders, who had three first-round picks, took him with the first of them at No. 4 overall. As with so many of their other young players, they failed to develop him into anything beyond the player who they overdrafted.
Enter 49ers defensive line coach Kris Kocurek, who has a gaudy track record of turning other teams' disappointments into valuable rotation players. He already pulled this trick with pass-rusher in Arden Key, who had three sacks in three seasons with the Raiders. Kocurek coaxed a 6.5-sack season out of Key, who then had a solid 2022 with the Jags before earning a deal with the Titans. Maurice Hurst came down the same pipeline in 2021, only to miss most of the past two seasons with injuries.
Jeff Darlington discusses the 49ers' backup quarterback battle between Trey Lance and Sam Darnold.
Ferrell is on a one-year deal for $2.5 million, but it seems inevitable that the team will get more out of him than what we saw in Las Vegas. The 49ers added a premium defensive tackle in free agency when they signed away Javon Hargrave from the Eagles, but Ferrell will likely figure in as an edge defender on early downs and mix in taking snaps on the interior in obvious passing situations. He will compete with 2022 second-rounder Drake Jackson for playing time across from Nick Bosa, but don't be shocked if he finishes the year looking like a bargain.
Rashan Gary, EDGE, Packers
Gary was on last year's list as a potential Pro Bowler and was on pace to produce that sort of season before injury struck. He generated six sacks in his first six games, only to tear his ACL in Week 9 and miss the remainder of the season. Losing him hurt the players around him, too; the Packers' QBR declined by more than 10 points without him on the field, while their pressure rate dropped from 40.3% to 31.7%.
The 25-year-old has started camp on the physically unable to perform list, so it's unclear whether he will play in Week 1. Gary seemed on pace to land a deal toward the top of the edge rusher market, but after the injury, he's playing out a fifth-year option for a little over $10 million. If the Gary we saw in 2021 and the first half of 2022 returns on the field in 2023, the Packers star should be able to land a new deal approaching $30 million per year.
Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Giants
Another promising edge defender whose season was cut short by injury, Ojulari racked up 5.5 sacks in 2022 despite being limited to 230 defensive snaps across seven games. He battled hamstring and ankle injuries multiple times before a thigh bruise knocked him out of the playoff win over the Vikings. He has made changes to his training regimen to try and stay healthier in 2023.
Ojulari's sack production might be a little inflated -- he racked up those 5.5 sacks on seven knockdowns a year ago -- but he has 13.5 sacks on 538 rush attempts, or just about one in every 40 tries. Nick Bosa, to bring up a star edge rusher, has generated one sack every 44 attempts over that same time frame. We can't project Ojulari to keep that level of production up over a full season, but if he stays healthy and only slips a little, we could be talking about him and Kayvon Thibodeaux as one of the best young edge rushing duos in football.
David Ojabo, EDGE, Ravens
For the Ravens to win the Super Bowl, they'll either need to find a veteran pass-rusher in free agency or have one of their two young rushers step up. Odafe Oweh, a first-round pick in 2021, hasn't done much during his first two seasons, racking up eight sacks and 26 knockdowns across 1,249 snaps. He could still take a leap forward in Year 3 -- and defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald will try to generate favorable matchups for his players -- but Baltimore needs its other Big Ten draftee to step up in his first healthy season.
Ojabo played for Macdonald at Michigan and looked like a future star during an 11-sack junior campaign, only to tear his Achilles during the school's pro day in March 2022. He fell to the Ravens in the second round of the draft and was sidelined for virtually all last season, playing just 22 regular-season snaps on defense before taking two more in the playoff loss to the Bengals. Ojabo looks closer to his old self in training camp so far, and a breakout season from the 23-year-old would solve Baltimore's biggest problem on paper.