Last Friday, NBA stars Alonzo Mourning and Mitch Ritchmond were inducted into the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame. As we finish celebrating their coronation, now seems as good a time as any to predict which current NBA players may one day join them.
Players such as Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett and LeBron James, among others, are obviously on track to reach the Hall. Other younger stars like Kevin Durant have years to burnish their résumés and seem likely to one day solidify their status. But there is a handful of veterans whose candidacy isn't so clear-cut. With the help of Basketball-Reference.com's estimate of Hall of Fame probability and my wins above replacement player (WARP) statistic, let's take a look at those cases and do our best to settle the debate.
Here's an analysis of nine NBA All-Stars on the HOF bubble, including several international players. (Players listed by career WARP.)
Vince Carter
Career WARP: 148.1
Basketball-Reference HOF probability: 71.3 percent
No candidate elicits a stronger reaction on both sides of the Hall debate than Carter, whose poor reputation around the league flies in the face of the metrics. By the numbers, Carter is one competent season away from cracking a WARP barrier of 150 that has historically been the threshold for election. Every eligible player with at least 150 career WARP has been inducted. Carter signed a three-year deal with the Memphis Grizzlies in the offseason. He should be able to crack the 150 WARP over the course of that deal. Also working in Carter's favor: No player with as many career points (23,190 and counting) has ever been stiff-armed from entry into Springfield. Like it or not, VC seems Hall-bound.
Shawn Marion
Career WARP: 142.9
Basketball-Reference HOF probability: 26.5 percent
Marion, too, could hit 150 WARP. But his traditional stats leave the argument unsettled. Marion's four All-Star appearances are on the low side for a Hall of Famer. That he was seen as the third option on Phoenix Suns teams that weren't good enough to reach the NBA Finals doesn't help his case, either. He's probably going to have to keep playing long enough to reach 20,000 career points to have a real shot at the Hall.
Chauncey Billups
Career WARP: 134.4
Basketball-Reference HOF probability: 20.5 percent
Although he recently worked out with the Cleveland Cavaliers, Billups, now 37, is probably done in the NBA. As a late bloomer, Billups wasn't able to build up impressive stats. Still, his WARP total puts him squarely in the Hall of Fame discussion. He will have to hope his 2004 Finals MVP and "Mr. Big Shot" reputation carry enough weight with the election committee.
Elton Brand
Career WARP: 132.5
Basketball-Reference HOF probability: 5.0 percent
If there were ever a WARP Hall of Fame, Brand would be inducted. As it is, ticket Brand for the "Hall of Very Good." Too many of his best seasons were played for moribund Los Angeles Clippers teams. And though he's spent plenty of time as a useful role player, an Achilles injury cut short his prime. There's just not enough on the résumé to make a strong case in Brand's favor.
Antawn Jamison
Career WARP: 79.7
Basketball-Reference HOF probability: 4.8 percent
Speaking of the 20,000 rule, the better test isn't Johnson but Jamison, who achieved the milestone last season but has made just two All-Star appearances.
Jamison was waived midway through last season, and at age 38, he's probably done for good. Meanwhile, he never dressed for a championship team and played for few serious contenders. He was the consensus national player of the year at North Carolina, though. His induction is unlikely, but not impossible.
Joe Johnson
Career WARP: 66.0
Basketball-Reference HOF probability: 24.6 percent
Johnson's candidacy inspired this list, specifically because of his similarity to Richmond's numbers and career. Like Richmond, Johnson's advanced stats are unimpressive, but his consistent scoring has added up. While nobody thinks of it as a magic number such as 3,000 career hits in baseball, all but one eligible player with at least 20,000 career points has been voted to the Hall of Fame. (Tom Chambers is the exception.) Johnson, with 17,000-plus points at age 33, stands an excellent chance of cracking 20K. Add in seven All-Star appearances -- more than recent Hall of Fame shooting guards Richmond (6), Joe Dumars (6), Dennis Johnson (5) and Reggie Miller (5) -- and it seems probable that Johnson will one day be immortalized in Springfield.
International stars
The most important thing to remember about the Basketball Hall of Fame is that it's the Basketball Hall of Fame and not just the NBA Hall; international performance counts, sometimes much more heavily. That's why players like Sarunas Marciulionis (30 NBA starts) and the late Drazen Petrovic (who played just four seasons in the NBA before his career and life were tragically cut short) are Hall of Famers.
Soon, the Hall's international committee will have to begin considering the following players who have enjoyed full NBA careers that put them on the borderline for recognition. (One other, Dirk Nowitzki, is a sure choice.)
Pau Gasol
Career WARP: 130.6
Basketball-Reference HOF probability: 61.1 percent
If Gasol's contributions were limited to NBA play, he would likely have to sweat out his election a year or two. But because of his roles on two NBA championship teams, and as a legendary member of Spain's national team and as a 2006 world champion, he's in with room to spare.
Manu Ginobili
Career WARP: 118.8
Basketball-Reference HOF probability: 25.8 percent
Ginobili is the more interesting case. A later start to his NBA career and a few injuries prevented him from piling up the requisite counting stats. (To wit: Ginobili has scored fewer career points than Stephen Jackson.) I suspect he'd still get in on the strength of four championships. His role on Argentina's golden 2004 Olympic team bolsters his case considerably.
Tony Parker
Career WARP: 84.2
Basketball-Reference HOF probability: 95.4 percent
Despite his poor WARP figure, Parker's case is the most heavily weighted to NBA performance of the three international candidates. In fact, Basketball-Reference.com's model suggests Parker -- who has accumulated six All-Star appearances, four NBA titles and a Finals MVP -- is the surest bet of any player considered here.