Back in March, it looked like one of the most important series of the season would be the Atlanta Braves at the New York Mets in the dog days of August, battling for the National League East title, a jam-packed Citi Field hoping to see Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander shut down the powerful Atlanta lineup.
Well, one of those things is true: The Braves' lineup is definitely powerful. With 217 home runs through their first 113 games, the Braves are on pace for 311 home runs, which would break the 2019 Twins' major league record of 307.
Scherzer and Verlander, on the other hand, will not be in attendance when Atlanta travels to New York for a four-game series this weekend. The flailing Mets traded their Hall of Fame veteran pitchers ahead of the trade deadline after watching their season -- and World Series aspirations -- slip away.
Even though the Braves are running away with the NL East and the Mets are a whopping 20½ games back, both are still fascinating teams to watch down the stretch. How many home runs will Atlanta hit? What does the rest of the season hold for New York and its record-breaking $364 million payroll?
Here are a few things to watch as we head into the final third of the season.
Braves attempt to make history amid Acuna's magnificent season
Ronald Acuna Jr. is in the midst of a historic power/speed season. He's hitting .340 with a 1.007 OPS, 26 home runs, 101 runs and 53 stolen bases. He's going to shatter the record for power/speed number (the harmonic mean between stolen bases and home runs), which Alex Rodriguez set in 1998 when he had 42 home runs and 46 steals. A few notes on Acuna's season:
The most home runs in a 50-steal season is Eric Davis in 1987 (50 steals, 37 home runs).
The most home runs in a 70-steal season, since Acuna looks like he'll get there: 28 (Rickey Henderson in 1986).
The last player to score 140 runs, since Acuna looks like he'll get there as well: Rodriguez in 2007 (143).
The most stolen bases in a 30-homer season: Barry Bonds, 1990 (33 home runs, 52 stolen bases).
And it's not just Acuna who's hot. Matt Olson is tied with Shohei Ohtani at 40 home runs for the MLB lead and also leads the majors with 101 RBIs. Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley have each 26 home runs, while designated hitter Marcell Ozuna has topped 20 home runs and catcher Sean Murphy is just two away from that. The lineup is so deep that No. 9 hitter Michael Harris II has an .807 OPS -- higher than Francisco Lindor, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
It's obviously an impressive group -- and remarkably durable, as Olson, Albies, Riley and Acuna have played every game. These guys like to play baseball and they like to hit. Now for the odd thing here: They don't lead the majors in runs scored and barely lead the NL. The Texas Rangers are averaging 5.73 runs, the Braves 5.70 and the Los Angeles Dodgers 5.67. That's mostly because of what we call sequencing of events -- also known as timely hitting. The Braves' OPS is 37 points higher than the Rangers and 47 points higher than the Dodgers. Their batting average is 23 points higher than the Dodgers and they've hit 35 more home runs. They should have scored significantly more runs than the Dodgers.
What's happened? The Braves have actually scored about as many runs as expected based on their statistics: 644 actual runs versus 647 expected. The Dodgers have simply sequenced their production better: 646 actual runs versus 619. For what it's worth, the Braves show no signs of slowing down, hitting .315/.387/.548 with 17 home runs in their first nine games of August. That might continue considering the Braves have another series against the depleted Mets' rotation next week.
However, they've also not been winning as much the past month. After roaring through June with a 21-4 record and winning six of their first seven in July, the Braves were 60-28 and on pace for 110 wins, in line to become the best team in Braves' history. They're just 12-13 since then and while they're clearly still the team to beat in the NL, they've looked a little more vulnerable, primarily because of their rotation. They did recently get Max Fried back after he missed three months, but All-Stars Spencer Strider and Bryce Elder both have ERAs over 5.00 over their past 11 starts. That mediocrity goes back even further for Strider, who continues to rack up the strikeouts but has a 4.57 ERA since the beginning of May. Right now, you would have to predict that veteran Charlie Morton would be the team's No. 2 starter behind Fried in a playoff series.
The NL MVP race
Despite all of his incredible numbers this season, Acuna is hardly a lock to win Most Valuable Player. Consider your NL WAR leaders:
Baseball-Reference: Ha-Seong Kim 5.9, Acuna 5.9, Freddie Freeman 5.3, Mookie Betts 5.2
FanGraphs: Acuna 6.3, Freeman 6.1, Betts 5.2, Kim 4.4
We can dismiss Kim. Even if you're buying that Baseball-Reference value, a lot of it comes from his outstanding defense and while that might get him into the top 10 in the MVP voting, it won't be enough to challenge for MVP honors. Freeman, however, has also been raking all season -- he, too, has scored 100 runs, he's going to hit more than 50 doubles and he's neck-and-neck with Acuna in batting average, OPS and total bases. Acuna's steals are flashy, but Freeman is an efficient 16-for-17. I think Acuna still has the edge right now, but this is a terrific MVP race.
Ohtani's pursuit of Aaron Judge ... and the greatest season ever
Let's start with the home runs. Ohtani is sitting on 40, on pace for 55, so catching Judge's AL record of 62 will be difficult. He has just one home run in his past 12 games, although don't chalk that up to a slump: He's still hitting .359/.528/.513 in that span (with eight intentional walks as teams increasingly pitch around him). Still, don't completely discount his chances of catching Judge. Ohtani hit 15 home runs in June and 16 in a 21-game stretch in 2021, so a red-hot 30 days could bring him close.
As for the greatest season, the easy answer is: Of course it's the best individual season of all time. He's been the best hitter in the game and one of the best pitchers (he's tied for third in bWAR among pitches). We've never seen this before. He could miss the rest of the season and still be the unanimous American League MVP, which, fun trivia tidbit here, would make him the first two-time unanimous MVP winner.
With 9.0 bWAR through his start on Wednesday, Ohtani is on pace for 12.4 bWAR. Leaving aside dead-ball-era pitchers who racked up huge innings, that would be one of the best seasons ever in total value -- but not the best via Baseball-Reference's math:
1. Babe Ruth, 1923: 14.1
2. Dwight Gooden, 1985: 13.3
3. Babe Ruth, 1921/1927: 12.6
5. Steve Carlton, 1972: 12.5
6. Carl Yastrzemski, 1967: 12.4
Let's leave it at that for now. We have time to dig deeper into this.
The Yankees' 30-year streak
The New York Yankees have two goals: (1) Make the playoffs; (2) If that doesn't happen, to at least avoid a losing season.
Their last losing season came in 1992, a run of 30 consecutive winning seasons -- a streak Yankees fans take enormous pride in. The Dodgers have had three losing seasons since then, the Braves and St. Louis Cardinals five and the Pittsburgh Pirates 26 (and counting). The Yankees came close a couple of times, going 84-78 in 2014 and 2016, despite getting outscored both seasons. While they are currently four games over .500, they were 11 games over on June 4 and they were terrible in July, when they were 10-15 and outscored by 34 runs.
Could the Cardinals fall to the basement?
The Cardinals haven't finished under .500 since 2007, but that's not the streak we're referencing here. They haven't finished in last place in their division since 1990, when they finished sixth in the six-team NL East with a 70-92 record. Whitey Herzog, who had managed the Cardinals to three World Series appearances in the 1980s, resigned on July 6 with a 33-47 record. That ushered in a mediocre 1990s for the franchise, with the Cardinals making the playoffs just once in the decade. I don't think the franchise is headed toward another stretch like that, but it will be a crucial offseason, starting with whether current manager Oliver Marmol will be the fall guy for what has really been an organization-wide failure.
The race for best overall record
While a lot of focus will be spent on the division and wild-card races -- five divisions are still up for grabs, although the Los Angeles Dodgers are starting to pull away in the NL West -- don't forget about the race for best overall record and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Not necessarily the biggest concern for teams, although you certainly want to finish with one of the two best records in your league in order to avoid that best-of-three wild-card series.
In April, it looked like the Tampa Bay Rays would cruise to the best record. Then it looked like the Braves. Now it's up for grabs with the Braves just ahead of the Baltimore Orioles, the Rays and Texas Rangers close behind and the Dodgers charging in a hurry. I'd still rate the Braves as the favorite here, but the most fascinating team to watch these next few month might be the Rangers, since they're also locked in a tight duel with the Houston Astros in the AL West. They could finish anywhere from the best record in the majors; they could just miss the division title and not even host a playoff game, if the Rays or Orioles take the fourth seed in the AL and host the wild-card series.
Embrace the tank: How far can the Mets fall?
After trading away Scherzer, Verlander, David Robertson, Mark Canha, Tommy Pham and Mr. Met's valet, the Mets aren't exactly trying to win. In fact, it would be in their absolute best interest to lose as much as possible.
Here's the deal: Since the Mets spent more than $40 million over the luxury tax threshold, they will be looking at their first-round pick in the 2024 MLB draft dropping 10 spots (as was the case this year, when they dropped from 22nd to 32nd). Except the draft lottery, instituted for the 2023 draft, now determines the order for the top six picks -- and those picks are protected.
The worst three teams have a 16.5% chance of securing the first pick. The sixth-worst team has a 7.5% chance, the 10th-worst has a 1.80% chance and so on. There are other rules, like one of the 15 designated big-market teams can't draft in the top six more than two years in a row, which applies in 2024 to the Washington Nationals, meaning their odds are distributed among the other teams. If the Mets finish with the sixth-worst record, they will have a 53% chance of landing a top-six pick. But if they don't pick in the top six, the highest they can pick would be 17th.
Can Gerrit Cole finally win a Cy Young Award?
Cole looks like the favorite right now with a 10-3 record and 2.75 ERA while leading the majors in innings pitched. He has finished in the top five of the voting five times, including two runner-up finishes, which makes him one of the best pitchers never to win the award. I might nominate Hall of Famers Bert Blyleven or Nolan Ryan for that honor, but Cole is actually second on the all-time list of career Cy Young Award shares among pitchers who never won -- behind another active pitcher. (Award shares are the percentage of total points possible in the voting. If you get 75% of the possible points, for example, you earn 0.75 award shares.) The top five:
1. Adam Wainwright: 1.91 award shares
2. Cole: 1.90 award shares
3. Chris Sale: 1.88
4. Curt Schilling: 1.85
5. Dan Quisenberry: 1.49
(Ryan is sixth and Blyleven way down the list.)
A division winner with a losing record?
Thank you, AL Central, for creating a potential mockery of the postseason with your ineptness. The Minnesota Twins are currently 60-57 and with the Cleveland Guardians unable to score runs and falling five games under .500, the Twins could slump and still win the division. Only 12 of Minnesota's remaining 45 games are against AL Central opponents, but they're only one game under .500 outside the division and they finish the season against the Oakland Athletics and Colorado Rockies, so I do think they finish with a winning record. There's a strong chance, however, that an AL team (or two) with a better record than the Twins will miss the playoffs.
Saying goodbye to a few veteran favorites
Cole Hamels, who last pitched in the majors in 2020, officially announced his retirement this week, which was a good reminder that these final weeks might be the last chance to see some of these stars:
Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
It hasn't been much fun watching Cabrera these past seven seasons, especially in his current final season when he can longer turn on a ball for power (he has one home run). But let's acknowledge how dominant he was at his peak: From 2005 through 2016 he hit .326/.405/.571 while averaging 33 home runs and 115 RBIs. Before his decline started in 2017, his lifetime average was .321. It's still at .307 and he'll retire alongside Willie Mays and Henry Aaron as the only players with 3,000 hits, 500 home runs and a .300 average. He just passed Robin Yount for 20th place on the all-time hit list and should pass Paul Waner, George Brett and Adrian Beltre before season's end. He's 13th in RBIs and 14th in total bases.
Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
It's been a rough final season for Wainwright, who has a 7.81 ERA, and hopefully he can scratch out two more wins to get to 200 in his career. From 2009 to 2014, he was one of the best starters in the game, a run interrupted by Tommy John surgery in 2011. He also missed most of 2015 and 2018 and then there was the shortened COVID season in 2020. Maybe he's not quite a Hall of Famer, but he'll go down as one of the all-time great Cardinals.
Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals
With 76.4 career WAR, Greinke is comfortably above the baseline for Hall of Fame selection and, who knows, he might try to pitch another season. I suspect he won't make a proclamation either way and we won't know his future until spring training. Remove his early years with a terrible Royals team and these past seasons with another terrible Royals team and he went 198-97 between 2008-2021 for an incredible .671 winning percentage.
Votto will be a free agent if the Reds exercise a $7 million buyout rather than pick up a $20 million team option, which is the likely scenario given that they're jammed up with young infielders who need to play -- and who won't be making $20 million. Votto, however, has shown he's not quite done yet. He didn't join the Reds until June 19, but he's hitting .219/.323/.533 with 13 home runs. He has spent his whole career in Cincinnati, so he might have to face the decision of playing somewhere else next season unless the two sides restructure his contract.