Cleveland Guardians RHP Emmanuel Clase was supposed to be immune to the typical volatility and erratic statistics that occasionally befalls even the top closers. After all, Clase posted an outstanding 1.33 ERA and an 0.84 WHIP during the 2021-22 seasons, saving 66 wins and blowing only nine saves. No relief pitcher was more dominant, impenetrable, or safer for this season, which is why Clase was the No. 1 relief pitcher in ESPN average live drafts, going in the sixth round overall.
How are Clase investors feeling today, as the once-impeccable 25-year-old blew a pair of saves in the past week, his eighth and ninth of a surprising, uneven season that spots him as just the No. 21 relief pitcher on the full-season Player Rater, lugging along a 3.21 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP? In fact, it could be worse. Three of the runs he allowed last week (and nine this season, easily the most among pitchers with double-digit saves) were unearned. Clase still boasts 31 saves, and his ERA, WHIP and disappointing strikeout percentage aren't exactly destroying fantasy teams. Still, he isn't awesome.
So, what happened?
Well, relief pitching happened. This is actually somewhat normal behavior, even among the most dominant relief pitchers, as few escape unscathed after several years of excellence. Clase is dealing with some bad luck here (.330 BABIP, 58.8 LOB%), but it's not all bad luck. His slider isn't dominating left-handed hitters like it used to, so he is relying a bit more on his fastball, which he is not throwing as fast as in previous seasons. Clase is 25. Even young closers are poor investments in the first 10 rounds of standard drafts -- and even poorer keepers, though that rarely stops people from doing it.
Clase remains rostered in more than 95% of ESPN standard leagues -- and he should be. However, that figure has dipped a bit over the last few weeks. Nah, I wouldn't drop Clase, even if you choose to add several readily available save options who rank ahead of him on the Rater for the season, including Chicago Cubs RHP Adbert Alzolay, Washington Nationals RHP Kyle Finnegan and Miami Marlins RHP David Robertson. We know what Clase is capable of and, when the Guardians do win, they tend not to score much (thus creating save chances). Even with nine blown saves (and seven losses), Cleveland is top 10 in saves.
One oddity about Clase is that he is well on his way to leading all relevant fantasy relief pitchers in unearned runs for the third consecutive season. Can we read anything into this? Perhaps not. We want Clase to be utilized in such a way that he often pitches in the 10th inning, with the ghost runner at second base in play. When that runner scores, he counts as an unearned run. The Guardians are defensively responsible, though, and have been for years. Entering Tuesday, Clase has been charged with eight, seven and nine unearned runs, respectively, over the last three seasons. It is peculiar, since he was so difficult to hit those first two seasons.
Regardless, Clase is not the only Guardians relief pitcher with a reduced strikeout rate. Clase whiffed 26.5% and 28.4% of hitters he faced in 2021 and 2022. This year, he is at 22.7%, with fewer strikeouts than innings pitched. That is surely not as expected. Still, ordinary RHP Nick Sandlin is the lone Guardians relief pitcher with more than 30 innings pitched and a strikeout rate better than 26%. Last season, six relief pitchers did so. Is Clase the problem, or is there something going on where the entire bullpen is in a malaise?
Blue Jays RHP Jordan Romano is back to health and expected to close games again, and fantasy managers who moved on from him should reinvest.
The lesson here is not that we should have seen an "ordinary Clase" coming. The lesson is that even the top options, on occasion, disappoint. We saw it with dominant lefty Josh Hader last season. Now he's great again. Baltimore Orioles RHP Felix Bautista is the No. 1 relief pitcher on the Player Rater this season, enjoying a dominant season much as Clase did the last two years. Perhaps Bautista does it again in 2024, but it is not wise to pay a Round 5 or 6 premium to find out. Frankly, if Clase slips into the middle rounds next season, that is exactly the proper play.
Stock rising
Jordan Romano, Toronto Blue Jays: Romano last pitched on July 28, succumbing to the lower back spasms that truncated his All-Star appearance and affected him for the rest of the month, but the Blue Jays claim all is well now. He may come off the IL as early as Tuesday. Nothing against RHP Erik Swanson or former St. Louis Cardinals RHP Jordan Hicks, but this would be welcome news. Romano is barely outside the top-10 relief pitchers on the full-season Player Rater, but if he's healthy, he's likely to push his way back in over the final six weeks.
Aroldis Chapman, Texas Rangers: Saves haven't been coming his way, as fellow LHP Will Smith takes them all in a clear (for now, at least) hierarchy, but that hardly means Chapman lacks value. Nobody -- even including Bautista and Devin Williams -- has had a greater strikeout percentage since the All-Star break (53.2%). Plus, Chapman hasn't permitted a run this month. Smith has done so in three of his six outings. This hierarchy may change soon.
Jordan Weems, Washington Nationals: We featured Finnegan last week, but his main setup option hasn't permitted a run over his last 12 appearances and has had multiple strikeouts in four of his last five outings. OK, so this is Weems. We get it. You're not dropping anyone good for him, but anyone looking to move in ERA and WHIP and still relying on a shaky starting pitcher should consider surging middle relief options.
Stock falling
Giovanny Gallegos, St. Louis Cardinals: Ordinary LHP JoJo Romero earned his first career save on the final Sunday of July, which made sense, as the woebegone Cardinals were transitioning the bullpen following the Hicks trade. Romero earned save No. 2 this past Saturday, relieving Gallegos in the eighth inning and finishing off the save, though he permitted a ninth-inning run. Let's be clear: Romero isn't that good and yet, he has more saves than Gallegos over the past two months. With once-dominant RHP Ryan Helsley on the mend from a forearm strain and likely to handle ninth-inning duties upon his return, it doesn't leave much for Gallegos, who pitched ineffectively again on Monday.
Pete Fairbanks, Tampa Bay Rays: Fairbanks boasted a 1.73 ERA and an 0.96 WHIP just one week ago, but then he permitted a meaningless Willson Contreras home run while saving a 4-2 victory. OK, no big deal. Then he couldn't find the plate in an awful blown save against the Guardians this past weekend. Fairbanks inherited an 8-5 lead and, of the six hitters he faced, he walked three, hit another, and tossed two wild pitches. He threw just 12 of his 30 pitches for strikes. Add in durability questions and the fact the Rays have been a sub-.500 team over the last two months and it makes sense for Fairbanks to be on the most-dropped list.