With the MLB trade deadline behind us, now is a good time to look ahead to what this offseason's free agent class has to offer. Spoiler alert: It's mostly pitching, highlighted by one ace -- who also happens to lead the major leagues in home runs.
There has been a lot of ink spilled (some by me, with the help of 26 industry insiders) about the upcoming free agency of Shohei Ohtani. I think he is the most important free agent in North American sports since LeBron James took his talents to South Beach, so it's warranted.
While Ohtani is the name everyone will be watching, he's not the only free agent who is likely to command a nine-figure contract this offseason. Here are the top 10 upcoming free agents as of right now, along with another group of players who have a chance to play themselves into hefty paydays over the final two months of the regular season.
Tier 1: The only limit is your imagination
1. Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH, Los Angeles Angels (2024 Opening Day age: 29)
Three months ago, Ohtani's potential contract from baseball insiders came in at 11 years and $524 million.
Since then, Ohtani has led the league in position player WAR by a good margin despite not playing in the field at all. He's been positively underwhelming on the mound, with 10.7 K/9, an ERA in the 3s and over six innings per start. I haven't canvassed the industry again, but my expectation for the best position player and arguably the best pitcher in free agency with unprecedented marketing upside is $600 million.
Tier 2: Players who will get anywhere from $80 million to $150 million
You could rank basically anyone in this tier in almost any order as there are a lot of similar pitchers in this class who should do well in free agency, with a small chance one or two of them clears $150 million. One or two will likely have to settle for one-year deals or something with an opt-out designed to be used early in the deal. The top players in the "others with a shot" category below also could clear $80 million.
2. Matt Chapman, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays (30)
Chapman should have a very active market because he and Cody Bellinger are the only two position players in the top 10, possibly the top 15.
As one of the best defensive players in the league who is also regularly 20% above league average at the plate and above average as a baserunner, Chapman will have broad appeal to all sorts of clubs. He'll easily get into nine figures with a high-water mark around Marcus Semien's seven-year, $175 million contract with the Rangers signed before the 2022 season.
3. Blake Snell, LHP, San Diego Padres (31)
Snell got the most support as the best pure pitcher in this group, and there are some easy-to-like qualities as a lefty who sits 94-97 mph with solid performances over 10 career playoff starts. His command can be shaky and he turns 31 in December, so that could be too risky for a nine-figure outlay for some teams. The relevant comps here are Patrick Corbin (six years, $140 million), Carlos Rodon (six years, $162 million) and Robbie Ray (five years, $115 million).
4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP, Orix Buffaloes (NPB) (25)
Yamamoto is widely expected to be posted, and he is a fascinating free agent given that he doesn't turn 25 until later this month. He's not big at 5-foot-10 but makes up for it by repeating his delivery well, with the potential for plus command. Yamamoto is above average to plus at almost everything on the mound, with his splitter and feel for pitching his best qualities.
His contract should easily clear Kodai Senga's deal last winter (five years, $75 million plus posting fee) as Yamamoto is 5 years younger and a comparable talent but with better command. The belief is his entire package will go into the nine figures as a contract, plus the posting fee.
An exec I spoke with who has followed Yamamoto for years told me he thinks Yamamoto's contract plus posting fee will add up to the biggest pure pitcher deal this offseason, so things are very tightly bunched in this area of the list. The posting fee structure is tiered, but the fee on a $100 million deal is $16.875 million, with 15% more for every dollar over that.
5. Aaron Nola, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies (30)
Because Nola is right-handed and doesn't have the velocity or strikeout rate of Snell, there's less belief that he'll get the highest pure pitcher deal. He has underperformed all of the ERA indicators for three straight years, so if a team has a clear point of view of what's driving that trend, it could see some upside. Kevin Gausman's deal with Toronto (five years, $110 million) seems the most relevant comparison here.
6. Josh Hader, LHP, San Diego Padres (29)
The top of the relief market was set by Edwin Diaz's deal (five years, $102 million) with the New York Mets last offseason, and everyone I spoke with seems to think Hader's deal will land in that area.
7. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Detroit Tigers (30)
Rodriguez blocked a trade to the Los Angeles Dodgers and now will have to deal with his opt-out. He should easily be able to clear the three years and $49 million left on his deal, but that could also be accomplished by reworking it with the Tigers to avoid hitting the open market. Here's yet another starting pitcher with all the components to project a low-nine-figure deal, but there's a real chance he never reaches the open market.
8. Julio Urias, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers (27)
Urias is still just 26 years old, has made 23 postseason appearances and -- stop me if you've seen this before -- is a starter who looks poised to make nine figures this offseason. He's having a bit of a down year fueled by a huge amount of homers allowed, but he has strong durability, as evidenced by being in the top 30 for innings pitched the past three seasons.
9. Cody Bellinger, CF, Chicago Cubs (28)
Bellinger hasn't been that open to an extension during his breakout year on the North Side because he looks like the undisputed second-best position player in free agency. His surface numbers are back to his old level, but his underlying components haven't quite fully recovered yet -- though he still projects as a really good player. His power/contact/defense combo is still a standout skill set, and his platform year doesn't look wildly different from Brandon Nimmo's 2022 campaign, which led to an eight-year, $162 million deal -- even if expectations for Bellinger's deal are a bit lower.
10. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Los Angeles Angels (29)
Similarly, Giolito hasn't reached the heights this year of his 2019-2021 peak, but he's still solid and has been reliable (15th-most innings over the past three seasons). He should easily clear the Jameson Taillon/Taijuan Walker tier from last winter (guarantees of $68 million and $72 million, respectively), and you can then pick some comps in the low nine figures as a target for him, such as Gausman's deal of $110 million.
Others with a shot at $10 million-plus guaranteed
Starting pitchers (11): Jordan Montgomery, Marcus Stroman, Jack Flaherty, Sonny Gray, Michael Lorenzen, James Paxton, Clayton Kershaw, Shota Imanaga (NPB: subject to posting), Tyler Mahle, Kyle Gibson, Kenta Maeda
Relief pitchers (9): Jordan Hicks, Will Smith, Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, Reynaldo Lopez, David Robertson, Yuki Matsui (NPB: subject to posting), John Brebbia, Dylan Floro
Catchers/infielders/designated hitters (6): Rhys Hoskins, J.D. Martinez, Jeimer Candelario, Amed Rosario, Teoscar Hernandez, Amed Rosario
Outfielders (10): Jung-hoo Lee (KBO), Harrison Bader, Joc Pederson, Tommy Pham, Kevin Kiermaier, Hunter Renfroe, Michael A. Taylor, Randal Grichuk, Adam Duvall, Andrew McCutchen