There are no free seasons in the NFL. The majority of players on rosters enter training camp on unguaranteed deals, but even the lucky few who have their money secured have something to prove.
Young players are looking to establish themselves and earn a more significant second or third contract after playing on a below-market rookie deal. Veterans are trying to hold on to those contracts and establish their legacy. Coaches and general managers have their money guaranteed, but many of them are one season away from the hot seat, if not out of a job altogether.
Even in that crucible, though, some players and executives have more on the line in 2023 than others. Let's run through my annual list of the people around the NFL who have the most riding on the season and break down what their upside and downside looks like over the next few months.
There is no more obvious example of how much a year can change a player's fortunes than one of the players I mentioned in last year's column.
Heading into 2022, it was unclear whether Jalen Hurts was going to be the quarterback of the future in Philadelphia. I mentioned that the upside for Hurts if he thrived was going to be a deal with $100 million guaranteed, which was about $97 million more than what he projected to make without a breakout season. I was wrong: Hurts landed $110 million guaranteed after his MVP-caliber season. He actually had $107 million or so riding on 2022.
Hurts was the only member of the nine-figure club in 2022. There's one player who very clearly fits that criteria in 2023, and we'll start with him:
Jump to an interesting player:
Josh Allen | Jamal Adams
Marcus Davenport | Najee Harris
Trey Lance | Jordan Love
Baker Mayfield | Jonathan Taylor
Devin White | Chase Young
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins
Let's start with the most obvious answer. Like classmates Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert, Tagovailoa had his fifth-year option picked up in March, guaranteeing him $23.2 million for the 2024 season. Unlike Hurts and Herbert, who have signed significant extensions, and Burrow, who is sure to sign his own deal before the start of the season, Tagovailoa isn't expected to come to terms on a contract this year. His long-term future with the Dolphins might depend on what happens over the next eight months.
Of course, you probably understand why. Tagovailoa was the best quarterback in football during the first half of last season, averaging more than 9.0 yards per attempt, throwing 18 touchdown passes against just three picks and posting a league-best QBR of 82.4. Injuries to his offensive line and multiple concussions caused him to struggle the rest of the season, and after suffering a concussion in the middle of a loss to the Packers in December, he missed the remainder of the regular season and Miami's postseason loss in Buffalo.
If Tagovailoa lives up to those early-season expectations this year, the Dolphins will pay him accordingly, with a deal north of $120 million guaranteed at signing. If he struggles or isn't able to stay healthy, though, Miami (or another team) will move forward with that $23.2 million guarantee for 2024 and see whether he can regain that form next season. There's nobody else in the league who has nine figures riding on what happens over the next 17 games.
Josh Allen, QB, Bills
Tagovailoa isn't the only AFC East quarterback with a lot riding on what happens this season. Allen already has been paid and established himself as one of the league's top quarterbacks, but his play declined after an elbow injury last season. He averaged 8.3 yards per pass attempt before suffering a torn UCL in his right elbow in Week 9. Afterward, he averaged 6.9 yards per attempt and struggled in the postseason, with the Bills narrowly beating a Miami team without its top two quarterbacks before getting blown out by the Bengals at home in the snow.
I'm not concerned about Allen, who has firmly established himself as a top-tier quarterback and a player who can single-handedly win the Bills games as a passer and runner. I'd love to see him protect himself when scrambling and for the Bills to call fewer designed runs for him in 2023, but I don't believe there's any fundamental issue with how he plays or what he's going to do this season.
Having said that, the playoff discussion for Allen is coming. You can argue it doesn't make sense. I don't agree with it. I saw what Allen did against the Chiefs, who couldn't have stopped him with 15 defenders on the field in the fourth quarter of their game in the 2021 playoffs. It was one of the single greatest performances I've ever seen from a quarterback, and he shouldn't be blamed for a loss when he handed his defense a three-point lead with 13 seconds left and never got to touch the ball again.
And yet, Allen is just 4-4 in the postseason in his career. He was a mess during the 2019 playoffs, when the Texans seemingly caused him to break down like an overheating circuit board. He wasn't good last postseason. He was incredible against the Patriots the week before that Chiefs game in 2021. The 2020 playoffs were somewhere in between, as he ran hot and cold for long stretches against the Colts and Ravens before losing to the Chiefs.
I hate this whole argument, but I've seen it before. Peyton Manning spent years struggling in the postseason before eventually breaking through, but until he made it to a Super Bowl, he was widely portrayed as inferior to Tom Brady. The same was true for John Elway and Dan Marino relative to Joe Montana in the prior generation. It's unfair to compare anybody to Patrick Mahomes, who still hasn't even played a road playoff game -- and I hate the way people move the goalposts for playoff success until a quarterback wins a Super Bowl -- but this isn't anything new.
On top of that, the Bills aren't getting any better. Their roster isn't as deep as it was two years ago, owing to a few disappointing draft picks and a series of deserved extensions for their young stars. Edge rusher Von Miller is 34, and safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer -- the heart of the team -- are both 32. Star wideout Stefon Diggs' relationship with the team appears to be melting down in installments. The AFC East (and the conference as a whole) is stacked, but if not now for Allen and the Bills, when?
Joe Douglas, GM, Jets
Most general managers who start their careers 20-46 in the biggest media market in America aren't feeling as good about their chances of making it through Year 5 as Douglas is in New York. Consider that Dave Gettleman was run out of town a year earlier after the Giants went 19-46 in his four years at the helm.
It's not hard to understand. Douglas' Jets went 7-10 last season with a clear albatross at quarterback (Zach Wilson). Now, one of the league's best defenses will get to rest while future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers does his thing in a Jets uniform. On paper, they look poised to burst through years of mediocrity to make it back to the postseason for the first time since 2010. The expectation is for New York to compete with the best teams in the AFC.
Ryan Clark speaks to the budding Aaron Rodgers-Garrett Wilson connection as the Jets continue their training camp.
Maybe it will be that simple. If it's not, though, Douglas' résumé is going to come into question. Douglas had one of the best first rounds in recent memory when he landed cornerback Sauce Gardner and wide receiver Garrett Wilson last year, but he's also the same general manager who took Zach Wilson with the No. 2 overall pick the previous year. Top-100 picks Denzel Mims, Jabari Zuniga and Elijah Moore are already out of the organization before the end of their rookie deals. Wilson would have followed if he had any trade value.
What happens if the Jets don't live up to expectations? The sword is unlikely to fall on Rodgers, whom the team likely will be locked in to for the 2024 season once the two sides negotiate his contract. It won't be coach Robert Saleh, who built a great defense last season and arrived a year after Douglas made it to town. The most likely scenario should see New York compete for a playoff spot, but after throwing Wilson overboard last season, Douglas would be the next one to fall if the team falters.
Jamal Adams, S, Seahawks
Douglas got into position to acquire Zach Wilson a year ago as a product of the Adams trade, with the Seahawks sending two first-round picks as the focal point of a package to acquire the star safety from New York. The move looked promising after Year 1, when Adams racked up 9.5 sacks in 12 games and was a second-team All-Pro in 2020.
He has played just 13 games over the ensuing two seasons while battling a torn labrum in 2021 and a quadriceps tear in 2022. He hasn't recorded a sack over that stretch, and Pro Football Reference's metrics have pegged him as a liability in coverage. I'm not sure the move to acquire Adams in the first place looks great with any benefit of hindsight, and it would be even worse if the Adams who shows up in 2023 isn't as explosive as the player the Seahawks acquired three years ago.
Adams' $18.1 million cap hit is the largest for any safety in the league and of any player on the Seahawks' roster. That figure goes up to $23.6 million in 2024, when Seattle could create as much as $16.5 million in space by designating him as a post-June 1 release. This is the same organization that once sent a first-round pick to the Vikings for Percy Harvin, gave him a new contract and then traded him away the following year for peanuts. If Adams can't make it back to be a regular contributor this season, the Seahawks will have a tough decision to make next spring.
Trey Lance, QB, 49ers
Has any player in recent memory seen their stock rise and fall so quickly without playing much at all? Lance was the future of the 49ers franchise after the team traded three first-round picks to acquire the No. 3 overall pick and draft him in 2021. He started two games as a fill-in for Jimmy Garoppolo that season, averaging 8.5 yards per attempt and running for 120 yards. He moved into the starting lineup in 2022, then struggled amid a torrential downpour in Chicago before breaking his right ankle in the first quarter of Week 2. He has played 262 snaps over two seasons.
And yet, it seems like Lance might as well already be on another team. Garoppolo and then-unheralded seventh-round pick Brock Purdy thrived after Lance went down, and the organization acquired running back Christian McCaffrey. Reports have suggested San Francisco might be more likely to turn to newly acquired third-stringer Sam Darnold than Lance if Purdy's injured elbow isn't ready to go in Week 1. It would be one thing if Lance had flamed out like Zach Wilson (or Darnold), but the 49ers appear ready to abandon their hopes for the 23-year-old quarterback after three complete starts.
Lance will have a career after the 2023 season, but the initial shape of that career might have much to do with what happens over this campaign. The dream scenario would be for him to somehow win back the starting job, given that he would be blessed with the league's best playmakers and coach Kyle Shanahan, one of the foremost offensive minds in football. On the other end of the spectrum would be Lance getting injured again before being dealt to a hopeless situation after the year ends. He went from the 49ers' future to their past in a year; could he reverse that feat this season?
Jordan Love, QB, Packers
Lance already has started and seemingly ended his 49ers career in the time Love has spent backing up Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. Now, with Rodgers on the Jets, Love and his 83 career pass attempts will move into the starting role for the Packers. He'll be throwing to what projects to be the second-youngest group of wide receivers and tight ends since 1990. Love will be part of the most inexperienced quarterback room the NFL has seen since ... 2008, when Rodgers took over for Brett Favre. Well, at least nobody will get in his way!
Surprisingly, Love mitigated some of the risk before his debut campaign as the Packers' starter by agreeing to a one-year extension worth $13.5 million in lieu of the team picking up his fifth-year option, which would have cost Green Bay north of $20 million to guarantee. I don't think the Packers would have actually been willing to decline the option and run the risk of starting him on the franchise tag hamster wheel if he broke out, but it's also not my $20 million on the line. The team clearly believes Love is its quarterback of the future, but if he struggles this season, more meaningful competition will be on its way in 2024.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings
It's easy to write the script: After a 13-4 season in which the Vikings were propped up by an impossibly great record in close games, Cousins & Co. decline in 2023. An offense that ran more drives than any other team a year ago doesn't get as many opportunities as it did, causing Cousins' numbers to take a step backward. Out of the playoff picture in December, the Vikings choose to see what they have in rookie fifth-round pick Jaren Hall and bench Cousins for the final two games before the veteran leaves in free agency after the season.
Having pocketed more than $200 million across his career, Cousins doesn't need the money. His numbers are fine, but he doesn't have a realistic path to the Hall of Fame. The one thing left for the 34-year-old to accomplish before he retires is changing minds. The popular perception of him as a quarterback is that he's just good enough to disappoint you by losing in the postseason. Cousins has this 2023 season in Minnesota and some indeterminate number of seasons in the future elsewhere to rewrite his legacy.
Vikings QB Kirk Cousins remains an underrated, consistent fantasy option and a strong late-round draft pick for those willing to preach patience.
Where he ends up in 2024 might depend on how he performs in 2023. If Cousins plays well, there might be a path to a new deal with the Vikings. He could be in line for a move to a starting job on a more competitive team, with the oft-mooted reunion with Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco as one possibility. If he struggles, he would likely fall onto the path Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco traversed after leaving their longtime teams, either settling for bridge work or a low-upside starting opportunity somewhere in 2024, keeping him out of the Super Bowl picture.
Chase Claypool, WR, Bears
After a nine-touchdown rookie season in 2020, Claypool was seen as a burgeoning star and the next great wide receiver off the production line in Pittsburgh. After a solid but unspectacular 2021, the wheels came off in 2022. He fell behind George Pickens on the depth chart and averaged just 1.2 yards per route run, which ranked 55th out of the 67 receivers who ran 20 or more routes per game. Traded to the Bears at midseason to be a building block for Justin Fields, Claypool struggled to stay healthy and topped 30 yards once in seven games.
Now, with DJ Moore joining the organization, Claypool again looks to be buried in the third receiver spot on the depth chart. He didn't participate in minicamp, which didn't help his chemistry with Fields. As he enters the final year of his rookie deal, there's still significant upside in hand. A good season from Claypool might earn the 25-year-old a big contract in free agency. Something like his 2022 campaign again would have Claypool looking at a one-year pact for modest money.
Marcus Davenport, EDGE, Vikings
Last season was critical for Davenport, whom the Saints used two first-round picks to move up to acquire in the 2018 draft. It didn't go well. Playing out his fifth-year option, Davenport racked up a half-sack in 15 games while playing just 490 defensive snaps. He ceded opportunities to Carl Granderson and Kaden Elliss, players who didn't have Davenport's résumé as a first-round pick but simply outplayed him.
Davenport showed enough before the 2022 campaign to attract some interest in free agency. He signed a one-year deal with the Vikings for $13 million, allowing the 26-year-old to reenter the free agent market if he has a big season. He's still a great talent and can be a rotational end for years to come given his size, but he needs to follow in the footsteps of Shaq Barrett and Kyle Vanden Bosch and turn his career around as a pass-rusher immediately after joining a new team.
Chase Young, EDGE, Commanders
No pass-rusher came into the league with a more exciting résumé than Young, who was seen as potentially the best player available at any position when he came off the board with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2020 draft. Young did enough in his debut season to claim the defensive rookie of the year award, but he never built on his promising start. He had just 1.5 sacks and four knockdowns during the first half of 2021 before suffering a knee injury, then didn't return before the final three weeks of the 2022 campaign.
The Commanders declined Young's fifth-year option this spring. The hope might be that the move motivates Young, but the reality is the Commanders thought the level of play Young has shown so far hasn't been worth the risk of guaranteeing him $17.5 million for 2024, even when that's a relatively modest mark for edge rushers. With former college teammate Nick Bosa set to become the highest-paid defensive end in league history on a new extension this offseason, Young needs to turn things around to get back on track, with the $24.5 million franchise tag as a target for 2024.
Isaiah Simmons, LB, Cardinals
The other eligible player to have his option declined among the 2020 draft's top 10 picks is another defender who hasn't lived up to expectations. Simmons entered the league billed as a player with the versatility to play as an off-ball linebacker, safety or even slot cornerback. Along with 2021 first-rounder Zaven Collins, the Cardinals drafted Simmons to be a space-destroying matchup-fixer in a division that routinely terrorized linebackers and safeties in open space.
Since entering the league, though, Simmons hasn't been able to translate his physicals tools into consistent success at any position. He has been too easily picked and outmuscled as a linebacker, and hasn't been a difference-maker when used to rush the quarterback. After the 24-year-old took snaps in the slot last season, new coach Jonathan Gannon is moving Simmons into the secondary on a full-time basis, hoping that Simmons' physicality might play better away from the line of scrimmage. It's worth a shot given what little the Cardinals have to work with at cornerback at the moment.
Devin White, LB, Buccaneers
For a brief moment in April, it seemed as if White might be going somewhere else. The star linebacker requested a trade, but the Buccaneers decided against trading him, and the stories subsequently subsided. He likely will be on the Tampa Bay roster in 2023, although there haven't been many suggestions that the two sides are close on a long-term contract extension.
White had his highs and lows last season; he was named Defensive Player of the Month in September before looking like a liability as the season wore along. He struggled in coverage and was accused of loafing during a midseason loss to the Ravens. White can point to his résumé and suggest he should be considered one of the best inside linebackers in football. It was tough to believe he was that caliber of player for most of the 2022 campaign, which likely led to futile contract negotiations and the trade request.
The Bucs aren't in great cap shape after bringing back Lavonte David and Jamel Dean, and 2023 is a reset season for them. Tampa has a league-high $74.3 million in dead money on its salary cap. It can create more flexibility in 2024, but will White play up to the contract he wants? There's a universe in which these two sides come together on a long-term deal after the year and one in which they part ways.
Jonah Williams, OT, Bengals
Another young player who issued a trade request this offseason, Williams was clearly frustrated when the Bengals signed Orlando Brown Jr. with the intention of installing the former Chiefs lineman at left tackle. After allowing nine sacks in 16 games last season, Williams was expected to kick over to the right side, a move that could cost him millions of dollars on his next contract.
In truth, the Bengals made the right decision. Williams wasn't very good on Joe Burrow's blindside last season, and while he seemed like a strength when the Bengals were starting replacement-level linemen around him in the Super Bowl, he hasn't developed into the player Cincinnati hoped when it drafted him with the No. 11 pick in the 2019 draft. With Williams entering a contract season, it's better for him to try to have a great season on the right side than it would be to struggle again as a left tackle, which might be why he rescinded his trade request. Landing something like the five-year, $87.5 million deal Mike McGlinchey signed with the Broncos as a young tackle in free agency would hardly count as settling.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Jaguars
After nearly two years on the sidelines, Ridley is back. The 28-year-old battled a broken foot and the emotional anguish of enduring a robbery before being suspended for violating the league's gambling policy. Merely getting back on the field for Week 1 would be a triumph for the former Falcons star, who was traded to the Jaguars during his suspension.
Ridley is capable of much more than simply showing up, though. As the presumptive No. 1 wide receiver on a pass-friendly Jaguars offense, he could be in line to land the major contract he missed out on over the past two seasons with a big 2023 campaign. He is still in the prime of his career and could hope to land an extension north of $20 million per year if he returns to form.
Kadarius Toney, WR, Chiefs
The opportunity is there. The Chiefs traded significant draft capital to acquire Toney last season, and while the former Giants wideout played only 109 snaps in the regular season, he continued to flash big-play ability. He played eight snaps in the Super Bowl and yet still played a key role in swinging the game toward Kansas City, scoring one touchdown in the fourth quarter and setting up another with a 65-yard punt return. Between the regular season and playoffs, including special teams, Toney either was targeted or touched the ball 49 times on just 173 snaps. When he's on the field, the Chiefs are desperate to get him involved.
The problem is Toney has been unable to stay on the field. He has played more than 70% of the offensive snaps just once in two seasons as a pro. His résumé as a starting wide receiver amounts to three games in which he racked up more than 50 receiving yards, most notably a 189-yard performance in a loss to the Cowboys. With a wide-open depth chart at wide receiver for the Chiefs, Toney could make a starting job his own and produce dazzling numbers catching passes from Patrick Mahomes. Sadly, Toney aggravated his surgically repaired knee Monday and underwent surgery Tuesday, and it's unclear whether he'll be ready to start the season on the active roster.
Baker Mayfield, QB, Buccaneers
It's the last chance saloon for the former Oklahoma star. Mayfield struggled mightily during his final season with the Browns in 2021 and was a disaster last season for the Panthers, who cut him at midseason. Mayfield ended up in Los Angeles with a going-nowhere Rams team, and while he was on the winning side of two memorable nationally televised games against the Raiders and Broncos, the 2018 No. 1 overall pick averaged 6.6 yards per attempt. Nobody was going to thrive in an offense without Cooper Kupp or any starting offensive linemen after arriving in midseason, but Mayfield was more of a fun story than a productive quarterback during his stint in Los Angeles.
In Tampa Bay, Mayfield gets his last and best chance to rebuild his career as a starter. The Bucs still have a trio of exciting wide receivers in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Russell Gage. They have a couple of excellent players left up front in center Ryan Jensen and tackle Tristan Wirfs, who moves from the right side to the left this season. Mayfield won't have experienced competition, as Kyle Trask and John Wolford are the other quarterbacks on the roster. If he can't make it work here, he's going to be looking at backup duties in 2024.
Kevin Stefanski, coach, Browns
Mayfield's old coach in Cleveland also has plenty riding on 2023. Stefanski was named Coach of the Year in 2020 after leading the Browns to their first playoff win in more than 25 years, but the former Vikings assistant hasn't built on that success. Mayfield regressed and seemed to lose faith in his relationship with Stefanski in 2021. The Browns then traded for Deshaun Watson, but after Stefanski built a stable offense around the running game and Jacoby Brissett during Watson's suspension, the offense cratered once the new addition took over at quarterback.
After a full offseason, the hope is that Stefanski and Watson will be on the same page in 2023. If they aren't, well, only one of those two parties has a fully guaranteed contract for $230 million. After the team addressed its defensive woes by adding Jim Schwartz this offseason to serve as coordinator, there's not really a major change for them to make outside of Stefanski if the Browns struggle in 2023. No Browns coach has survived three consecutive losing seasons since Bill Belichick in the early 1990s. If Stefanski does right the ship and gets Watson to look more like the player the Browns expected last offseason, though, he could push for a contract extension.
Mike McCarthy, coach, Cowboys
Beyond the extent that every Cowboys head coach is perennially on the hot seat, McCarthy has to expect to be the focal point of team owner Jerry Jones' rage if things don't work out in 2023. The Cowboys moved on from offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, whose offenses had ranked first and fourth in scoring over the past two seasons, to hand playcalling duties back to McCarthy and retread coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. McCarthy's quotes about wanting to score less and control the scoreboard fall apart under some scrutiny.
Most coaches who win 12 games in back-to-back seasons have plenty of job security, and Jones stuck with Jason Garrett much longer than anybody would have expected before hiring McCarthy. Given how disastrous Dallas' exits from the postseason have been over the past two years, what happens if that occurs a third time? Jones isn't going anywhere. Dak Prescott is sticking around. It's possible Jones throws Schottenheimer overboard, but McCarthy consolidating power turns this into an all-in situation.
And on the flip side, what happens if McCarthy is right? If the Cowboys make a deep playoff run after falling short in years past, he will get a contract extension and the job security that comes with a big bet paying off. And if McCarthy does lead the Cowboys to a Super Bowl, well, they might put him in their Ring of Honor before the 2024 season even begins.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts
Most of the backs who have drawn attention this offseason don't qualify for this list because they aren't in position to make a significant change in their situation. Even if franchise backs Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs play well in 2023, they're likely to earn the tag again in 2024, given that it's still expected to come in around only $12 million. Free agents Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott are unlikely to earn long-term deals, even if they play well after joining a new team this season.
Taylor, who is entering the final year of his rookie deal, might be the lone back in position to escape the franchise tag. His 2021 production was transcendent, as he ran for more than 1,800 yards, scored 20 touchdowns and finished second in the offensive player of the year balloting. Ankle injuries limited him in 2022, but he's expected to again become the focal point of the offense as rookie first-rounder Anthony Richardson takes over as the team's quarterback of the future.
As I wrote in my long treatise on running backs, having a rushing quarterback can help and hurt star backs. The threat of a quarterback keeping the football creates numbers advantages for the offense and produces wider running lanes after freezing linebackers. It also reduces the chances that a back gets the high-end workload needed to produce the counting numbers Taylor did in 2021. Richardson's modest salary over the next few years would make it easier to justify a significant long-term deal for Taylor.
Najee Harris, RB, Steelers
Harris hasn't been an efficient back during his first two seasons in Pittsburgh. He has stayed healthy and absorbed a large workload, which are valuable skills, but he hasn't been the sort of difference-maker a team hopes to land when it drafts a running back in Round 1. Whether it's traditional metrics (3.9 yards per carry) or advanced ones (a league-worst minus-197 rush yards over expectation over the past two seasons), Harris has been a throwback in the wrong sort of way.
First, the explanation was that the Steelers didn't have any ability to create downfield spacing with an immobile Ben Roethlisberger, who seemed to target Harris at the first sign of any danger. Fair. Well, it wasn't any better with rookie Kenny Pickett last season. Next, there were the criticisms of the offensive line. Pittsburgh's line wasn't great, but undrafted backup Jaylen Warren was far more efficient by rush yards over expectation behind the same five blockers, and the Steelers rebuilt the left side of their line this offseason by adding Broderick Jones and Isaac Seumalo. If Harris doesn't take a leap forward in 2023, he's going to run the risk of having his fifth-year option declined.